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Szenarien für die europäische Wirtschaft

Scenarios for the European economy

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • Dec 19, 2022
  • Research

What are the scenarios for the European economy? Participants at the Future Lab in Frankfurt discussed this at the end of November.

The growth of the European economy over the past three decades has been based on five main pillars. Cheap energy from Russia, cheap goods from China, cheap liquidity from central banks, cheap security from the U.S. and export of expensive high technologies mainly to Asia. Although varying in scale, none of these conditions will be in place for the next 10-15 years.

In the area of high technologies, Europe is slipping from the top of the world to the second league, geopolitical shifts in the balance of power require a growing commitment to security, deglobalization is increasing the cost of capital, China is competing in the area of high-value industrial plants and products, and in the medium term renewable energies cannot compensate for the loss of cheap fossil energy.

Against this backdrop, Themis Foresight developed five future scenarios of the European economy as part of a major study “Europe’s Economy in a New World Order”, with all scenarios based on achieving the climate-neutral transformation of the economy by 2050 and no global escalation of warlike conflicts between geopolitical power centers.

Our scenarios prove to be a useful basis for companies to examine under which conditions their business models come under pressure in different scenarios and where opportunities open up for securing sustainable business.

We offer to work with companies to look at specific risks and opportunities for their business model and derive recommendations for action.

Project: Impact of the 5 scenarios on your business model

Jan Berger, CEO and project lead of the 10-month research will be happy to introduce you to the topic in a conversation.

Contact

Impressions of our discussions about the topic with our network in Berlin and Frankfurt (May – November 2022)

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Dekarbonisierung: Beratung für Unternehmen

Decarbonization for business

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • Dec 12, 2022
  • Research

Decarbonization and a reorientation of the energy supply of companies for the future: Themis Foresight is currently researching and advising companies in all sectors on this topic.

How can companies save energy? How can energy costs be reduced? What steps do companies need to take in decarbonization? How can the energy system become more efficient? Which energy technologies will determine the next decades and which investments are worthwhile for companies in the long term? Many companies want to become climate neutral and align their business models with regard to decarbonization. Themis Foresight is currently working with companies from a wide range of industries to examine what this could mean for them individually.

Realignment of the energy supply

What could such a project look like in concrete terms? You can find out more here:

More Details


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Europas Wirtschaft in einer neuen Weltordnung

What will Europe’s economy look like in a new world order?

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • Nov 28,2022
  • News

In November, Themis Foresight and its network discussed three of the five scenarios for what Europe’s economy could look like in the future. Back from left: Dr. Matthias Niedenführ, Dr. Jutta Krienke, Thomas Köpp, Siv Helen Hesjedal, Carina Stöttner, Dr. Olaf Theiler, Stefanie Foerster, Carsten Brandes, Jan David Ott, Dr. Ursula Schütze-Kreilkamp, Jürgen Keitel, Michael Stautz; Front from left: Jan Berger, Andreas Katzer, Martin Hartmann, Yasmin Krause;

On Nov. 28, the invited guests in Frankfurt discussed three of the five future scenarios for the European economy drafted by Themis Foresight. Siv Helen Hesjedal presented the results of the research of the last months. She spoke with analysts, business and political representatives from all over the world in order to obtain a view of Europe from both the inside and the outside. Based on this, the international team of Themis Foresight designed five scenarios, which differ in their political relations and alignments, economic foundations, degree of technologization and innovation, and social characteristics.

In this second Future Lab, the participants discussed, among other things, which economic structure, which direction of innovation or which corporate landscape determine each of these scenarios.

The results of this research will be published in spring 2023. Together with companies from various industries, Themis Foresight is currently working out what these scenarios could mean for them and their orientation. Interested companies are welcome to contact Carina Stöttner directly for more information.

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More about the project

Interested parties can contact Carina Stöttner to learn more about the project.

Email


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Neuer Report: Energie-Zukünfte

New report: Energy futures

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Carina Stöttner
  • October 31, 2022
  • Report

The Digital Report: Energy Futures – 2050.

I am pleased to finally announce today that our study “Energy Futures” has been published.

The current energy price crisis threatens to strangle large parts of the European economy. It is the result of a policy that made Germany unilaterally dependent on one main energy supplier on the one hand, and introduced measures to shut down conventional power generation before a new system of renewable energies could compensate for the shortfalls in base load supply on the other. The debates about who was to blame or complicit in these decisions and when are of little use to our work at this point. 

For the future, however, it is important not to repeat these mistakes in a different form. We need to move away from dependencies and establish an energy system whose components interlock. If we blindly invest in individual technologies today out of a knee-jerk reaction, it may well be that in a few years or decades we will face problems similar to those we face today. This report is a study of the future that shows how things may be in the future. Its time horizon deliberately extends to the year 2050 and in places even beyond.

In the report, futurist Jan Berger and entrepreneur and honorary professor Prof. Lothar Abicht describe the fundamental transformation of the energy system and the economy in the light of the fifth industrial revolution. They impressively explain the extraordinary potential that lies in green power and convincingly demonstrate how existing technologies and innovations will shape energy futures if the right course is set today.

With its depth of perspective, the report is aimed primarily at decision-makers in companies, politics and society. The report takes a well-founded look at photovoltaics, wind and nuclear power, bioenergy and hydrogen from all sides. Readers gain insights into which developments will dominate in the future and which assumptions many are wrong about today. They can use this knowledge to make decisions today.

To the Report

The report is 116 pages long and lists 200 sources. You can find it in our store:

Report

  • Windenergie-Energie-Zukuenfte

  • Energieverbrauch-Energie-Zukuenfte

  • Inhalt2-Energie-Zukuenfte


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Herzlich Willkommen im Team, Lothar Abicht!

Welcome to the team, Lothar Abicht!

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • October 11, 2022
  • News

Prof. Dr. Lothar Abicht

We have further strengthened our team. Prof. Dr. Lothar Abicht supports us as Senior Associate.

He brings with him his many years of experience and expertise in the combination of technologies and human sciences.

Lothar Abicht is an entrepreneur, honorary professor for adult education, researcher, trainer, sought-after speaker and author of numerous publications and books. He is currently working with Jan Berger on the publication “The 5th Industrial Revolution”.

We are looking forward to working with him!!


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Jan Berger als Referent beim Handelsblatt ENERGIE GIPFEL 2023

Jan Berger as speaker at Handelsblatt ENERGY SUMMIT 2023

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • October 5, 2022
  • News, Keynote

As every year, Handelsblatt is hosting its ENERGY SUMMIT 2023, image source: Handelsblatt.

Themed “The dawn of a new era”, the Handelsblatt ENERGY SUMMIT will take place from January 16-18, 2023.

Themis Foresight Founder and CEO Jan Berger joins the list of speakers – renowned experts from business and politics – and talks, among other things, about Themis Foresight’s energy report, which will be published shortly.


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Wohnungswirtschaft: Wege in die Zukunft

Housing industry: Paths to the future

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • October 5, 2022
  • News, Keynote

In her keynote speech, Carina Stöttner (pictured right) showed how housing companies can successfully position themselves for the future with the right investments.

The BBA Immobilienakademie dared to experiment and invited 20 executives from housing companies to the Bildungsbergtour 2022 in Saxon Switzerland for a sustainable professional exchange.

The openness of all participants was already proven when they signed up for this format. After all, this was not your typical conference with workshops, lectures and coffee breaks. It was in fact a tour over the mountains, where everyone knew everyone else at the end – combined with a broadened horizon in both the visual and professional sense. Nevertheless, there was no with like-minded people was still out of the question. Intensive mental work and physical exertion were on the program. were on the agenda.

The new offers opportunities above all

“Relationships are the commodity of the 21st century. That’s why we wanted to use this format to people into the foreground and network them with each other, not their functions and organizations,” says Sandra Niedergesäß, managing director at the BBA Immobilienakademie. “The new working worlds and methods offer great opportunities for the housing industry. We have incorporated them directly. Already in the run-up to the three days we got to know each other through the wonder.me platform and were therefore able to jump right in.”

A look into the future sets the rough direction

And this introduction had it all: Futurologist Carina Stöttner from Themis Foresight called her input Future as Opportunity. She presented the big questions of this time not only as challenges, but positioned the real estate industry as part of the solutions. “With more courage and will, the real estate industry can help create its own opportunities from challenges such as the shortage of skilled workers, migration, climate adaptation, and energy and water shortages”. Today it’s an investment, tomorrow the housing companies will be glad to have to have invested in this way,” says Carina Stöttner.

[…]

Housing companies are more than just housing providers

Solution orientation, exchange and being human are the keys to success under changing conditions. Housing companies are not only housing providers, but also employers, social actors and institutions with weight and influence on members and tenants. That is why they are so important for the transformation of society with their external impact and their internal life. After all, most people live with a housing company. At the same time, housing is something that touches all areas of society. And that is why courageous housing companies not only face challenges, but are part of the solutions.

Excerpt from BBA Immobilienakademie press release, Christin Hering, September 2022.


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BDI Klimakongress: Rückblick

BDI Climate Congress – a review

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • September 29, 2022
  • Congress

Picture: © Christian Kruppa / BDI.

For futurologists, capturing current impressions and moods from industry is a fundamental part of their work. In order to be able to develop well-founded futures, it is also important to look at the conditions in the present and the past.

For this reason, CEO Jan Berger and Managing Director Carina Stöttner visited the Climate Congress of the BDI – Federation of German Industries on September 22. There they gathered first-hand insights from industry leaders.

Clearly audible in terms of the future was: the industry is making great strides in terms of climate targets. The statement from Salzgitter AG CEO Gunnar Groebler was unequivocal: “We will only be able to survive in Europe in the long term if we go down the path of decarbonization.” His company, Groebler said, has set itself the goal of climate neutrality.

For the present, however, the sword of Damocles remained in the room – the simmering energy crisis. Concerns about it were expressed by both sides, politics and business. The demands of business representatives to local political representatives were loud.

While the energy crisis will once again challenge the business case of every company, at the same time companies are facing old familiar obstacles.

What became clear was: When it comes to building renewables, we need to be able to act faster, especially at the local level. Katja Wünschel, CEO RWE Onshore Wind and Solar Europe & Australia, comments: “The goals are ambitious, but implementation is lagging behind. Especially for onshore and solar, we see the biggest challenges at the municipal level. Theoretically, you could get a permit in seven months. In practice, it takes five to seven years. There is a wind farm in Germany that was implemented in two years of development. What went differently here? There was an absolute commitment from everyone involved.”

Commenting on regulatory hurdles, Groebler added, “What we are already building up in terms of regulatory work in Brussels with regard to green hydrogen will slow down the market here by at least five years – other countries will pass us by and we will get into dependencies again. The European Union must allow such an industry to emerge here and thus give energy-intensive industry a chance to stay here as well”

The voices predicting a relocation of production also caused concern. BDI President Siegfried Russwurm mentioned, “20% of German SMEs said in one of our surveys that they are considering relocating production due to high energy prices.”

The words of Markus Steilemann, CEO of plastics manufacturer Covestro AG, were apt: “The situation is very dramatic because we not only have an immense increase on the energy cost side, but also because the customer industries in DE and Europe are staying away.” That, he says, is causing them to run into difficulties on the sales side as well. He says, “We have to find something to bring energy prices down. (…) We invest where there is demand – and right now this is predominantly in Asia, where energy prices are also quite low at the moment.”

The next few months will set a decisive course for the future. To this end, Themis Foresight is publishing the report “Energy Futures,” which is part of the series “The Fifth Industrial Revolution.” In it, Prof. Dr. Lothar Abicht and Jan Berger describe what the economy and energy systems could look like in 2050. The report provides information on what needs to be initiated today so that we do not fall back into the traps of the past.

  • © Christian Kruppa

  • © Christian Kruppa

  • © Christian Kruppa

  • © Christian Kruppa

  • © Christian Kruppa

  • Jan Berger & Carina Stöttner

Energy Futures

Report

Read our latest publication on Energy 2050.

To the Report


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Unser Partnerbeirat

Our Partner Advisory Board

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • September 19, 2022
  • News

Themis Foresight team and Partner Advisory Board members at their inaugural meeting on May 23, 2022.

The Partner Advisory Board is the advisory and supporting body at our side. It is made up of renowned innovators and thought leaders, corporate executives and scientists. With their expertise, the members of the Partner Advisory Board support us in positively shaping the future of business in the German-speaking region.

The members of the Partner advisory board


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Häfen der Zukunft

Häfen der Zukunft: Wohin führt uns die Reise?

  • Profilbild Carina Stöttner

    Carina Stöttner
  • 28. März 2022
  • News

Gemeinsam mit der Hamburg Port Authority hat Themis Foresight CEO Jan Berger einen Artikel dazu verfasst, wie  sich Häfen in Anbetracht technologischer, gesellschaftlicher und wirtschaftlicher Einflüsse entwickeln müssen.

“Häfen werden sich ändern und grüner werden müssen, um den Herausforderungen der Zukunft standhalten zu können. Gefragt sind innovative Ideen und der Einsatz von smarten Technologien, um der Weltwirtschaft sichere Lieferketten anbieten zu können, die weder durch die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels noch durch unvorhergesehene Ereignisse unterbrochen werden. Bei der Suche nach Lösungen müssen unter anderem Fragen der Sicherheit und der Ethik bedacht werden. Der Beitrag stellt Lösungsansätze der Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) für die Hafenstadt Hamburg vor.” schreiben die Autor:innen dazu.

Mehr Einblicke in die Zukunft der Bereiche Häfen, Lieferketten, Hafenlogistik, Automatisierung oder digitale Zwillinge gibt es hier im Artikel:

Zum Artikel

Wir begleiten Unternehmen dabei, ihr Geschäftsmodell und ihre Branche aus dem Blickwinkel der Zukunft zu betrachten. Wir bieten neben vielen anderen Bereichen auch Expertise in Logistik, Transportwesen, Supply Chain Management oder Mobilität an. Kontaktieren Sie uns gerne unter contact@themis-foresight.com oder telefonisch unter +49 170 72 77 325.


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