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The future of the European capital market

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First the good news: According to Bloomberg NEF, investments in the transition to clean energy increased by 17% in 2023, reaching USD 1.8 trillion. The bad news: Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 will require USD 4.8 trillion per year from 2024 to 2030.

It is encouraging that there is sufficient capital available on the market to achieve this goal. However, given the current functioning of the European capital market, it seems questionable whether the EU will be able to raise its share of the USD 4.8 trillion needed for the net zero transformation .

  • The EU capital market is fragmented into 27 legislations , and further EU-wide regulations (such as CSRD reporting) will be added to the existing regulations. However, the Capital Markets Union proposed by former EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in 2014 is not gaining the necessary momentum to become a reality.
  • Compared to the US capital market, the European capital market appears to be less efficient. While the EU has a higher general investment ratio (investment as a percentage of GDP) than the US, the US outperforms the EU in “productive” investment by 2% of GDP. These are assets that are used directly for economic production, such as equipment, intangible business capital and infrastructure, as opposed to non-productive assets such as residential buildings. In the case of investments in non-construction assets such as machinery, equipment and intellectual property, the gap in favor of the US widens to 3.8% of GDP.
  • The European banking system holds assets amounting to 300% of the EU’s GDP, compared with just 85% in the USA. However, the USA has a strong and active asset management industry.
  • Banks must demonstrate a core capital ratio for good reasons. Banks are therefore limited in their ability to assume risks compared to the asset management industry. And if banks are invested in the operating phase of energy transition projects, it takes a long time to generate capital for new investments.

These facts raise the question: Do we need a radical reform of the structure and functioning of the European capital market?

Themis Foresight is in the final stages of publishing a study on the future of the European capital market. This study examines alternatives to the current capital market structure. We invite you to stay tuned when we publish the study at the end of August.

In the meantime, we invite the knowledgeable and opinionated readers of our newsletter to comment on four possible scenarios for the European capital market. If you provide your e-mail address, you will receive our research results after completion of the study.

All four scenarios may seem illusory and “impossible” at first glance. But we have created the scenarios for a single purpose: What needs to be done to achieve the net-zero transformation of European industry? We have assumed that the net zero targets will be achieved in every scenario. We examine two central parameters of change:

  1. Will the European capital market remain as fragmented as before? Or will we achieve a capital markets union?
  2. Will banks continue to hold assets amounting to 300% of GDP? Or will the European asset management industry grow and take on more of the risks (and rewards) of net zero transformation?

We look forward to receiving well-founded comments from our readers, who can challenge, validate and modify the four scenarios currently proposed. The survey ends on July 14 at 11:59 pm.

We look forward to publishing the results of our study at the end of August – free of charge as usual.

Thank you for your participation!

And to all of you who are about to embark on a well-deserved summer vacation – enjoy it, recharge your batteries, there’s plenty to do. The future is what we make of it!

With best regards

Jan Berger & Carina Stöttner

85% believe in a successful industry in Germany: Results of our foresight study on future industry and work in Germany

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In the picture: The participants of the Future Lab in the Look21 of the host Südwestmetall.

We are in the midst of a transformation. It’s not just the latest election results that show this: Established and new players are fighting for the favor of society – the assumption that traditional parties will continue to enter government in the future can no longer be taken for granted. We are in a phase of negotiating new values, in which there is a dissonance between renewal and persistence and the most diverse opinions and ideologies coexist. What applies to politics and society also applies to the economy. While deindustrialization dominates media discourse, Themis Foresight takes an open look at the future of the industry: nothing has been decided. As turbulent as these times may seem, they show above all that we are still in the midst of a reorientation. A Themis Foresight survey of over 90 business leaders, analysts and industry representatives shows that only around one sixth of respondents believe that deindustrialization will actually occur.

On June 18, our latest Future Lab took place in Stuttgart with the kind support of our partner company Südwestmetall. This event gave us the opportunity to present the results of our “Future of Industrial Work” study. These are based on 30 in-depth interviews and a comprehensive survey, which provide valuable insights into the future development of industrial work.

Study results: An overview

Carina Stöttner presented the key findings of the survey, which was conducted among more than 90 business leaders, analysts and industry representatives. It became clear that only around one sixth of those surveyed believe that deindustrialization is actually taking place. More than a third of respondents are convinced that Germany will have a significantly more diversified industry in the future and will act as a technological pioneer with deep tech solutions. Just under a third believe that industrial companies will continue to relocate their production abroad, but will implement innovations at home. One fifth are convinced that we will even have more industrial production in Germany in the future.

The most anticipated industrial developments include highly specialized and climate-neutral products, the circular economy, urban mining concepts and optimized current products and processes. Respondents do not see Germany as a producer of commodities; over 40% ranked this option last.

First frameworks for scenarios

With 29 committed participants, we had lively discussions that led to valuable insights. Based on the survey results and the in-depth interviews, initial frameworks for possible future scenarios for industrial work were discussed:

1. deep-tech industry: An innovative global industry that creates new industrial fields and enters into strong partnerships. These include new manufacturing processes, strong biotechnology, advanced computing possibilities and developments in robotics.

2 Made in Germany / Europe: Greater regionalization with reshoring and nearshoring of industrial production in Europe. Both protectionist approaches and open-minded options were discussed, with all their advantages and disadvantages.

3. designed in Germany, made in X: A relocation of production to other countries, which creates new capacities for innovation and lead plants in Germany and creates space for technological supremacy.

Future qualification requirements

Each of the scenarios entails different qualifications and specialist requirements. Most respondents believe that we will primarily need highly qualified specialists. They are closely followed by technically sound new collar workers and dual-trained specialists. Only a fraction believe that all skill levels – including low-skilled workers – will still have a place in the future of industrial work. Education, training and further education are therefore the key to future industrial success and social peace.

Social impact and challenges

The discussions in the Future Lab showed that all scenarios offer scope for both social stability and division. However, it was assumed that social problems could be solved better with greater prosperity.

A high degree of automation could lead to low-skilled workers in particular losing their jobs, while highly skilled workers are confronted with an overload of work. In the “Designed in Germany, made in X” scenario in particular, it is mainly the educated elite who benefit from high-paying jobs – a social divide would be conceivable. In addition to training top talent, such a transformation should also focus on the retraining and socially meaningful integration of former industrial workers.

A compartmentalized economy – in the example of greater regionalization – could lead to politics specifically regulating automation in order to promote an apparently people-friendly society, so that human jobs are secured, for example. However, what appears to be people-centered could mean a loss of innovative strength and productivity and an associated loss of prosperity, which could possibly lead to social unrest.

The “deep tech industry” scenario seems to create a humane balance in society. However, it does not come without challenges: If technological change is not carefully monitored, tech enthusiasts and tech opponents could come up against each other, especially when it comes to ethical questions about genetically modified plants, AI, robotics or research into as yet unknown phenomena.

Perspectives and outlook

In a scenario of a highly networked, global world, Germany could act as a pioneer in the field of deep tech and play a leading role on the global stage. The question arose as to whether developing countries could skip the manual industrial phase and directly establish a highly automated and more climate-friendly industry. This could lead to a more globally balanced and cooperative economy, but also to new competitors.

In a scenario of regionalization and reshoring, it is realistic to assume that this process will take place at European level rather than purely nationally. A protectionist approach could lead to economic stagnation and a loss of prosperity, while an open-minded approach offers scaling opportunities in local-for-local strategies and thus enables global competitiveness and innovative strength.

Next steps

The Future Lab has shown that the future of industrial work still leaves many questions unanswered. The analysis will be finalized in the coming weeks and published on our website. The next Future Lab will take place on October 17, 2024, and interested participants can contact Carina Stöttner(cs@themis-foresight.com).

In the next Future Lab, we will present the final scenarios and derive a desirable picture of the future for the industry. Industry representatives are cordially invited to participate.

We would like to thank all participants for their valuable contributions and the numerous pieces of feedback, which will be incorporated into the further development of the scenarios. Together we are shaping the future of industrial work.

Uncovering hidden narratives in the company – Our client DB about Causal Layered Analysis

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In a presentation at the third event of the “Critical Futures Research” association, Jörg Blechschmidt, Product Owner Digital Foresight at the rail subsidiary DB Systel, gave insights into a futures project in which they worked together with Themis Foresight.

Thanks to critical futurology for recording and editing the lecture online.

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Causal Layered Analysis – What is the added value? Jörg Blechschmidt in the video of the critical futurology event.

The aim of the project was to identify areas of tension with DB’s current strategy and to develop future impulses for 2035. Themis Foresight supported the digital subsidiary DB Systel in this project with a Causal Layered Analysis (CLA).

The starting point for the project was the basic scenario called “Digital Future 2035”. DB used various resources such as trend studies and external input to create a coherent picture of future digital trends that are specifically tailored to the needs of Deutsche Bahn.

To this end, Jörg Blechschmidt and his team deliberately sought extreme support in order to uncover unconscious narratives and biases. The added value of the CLA lay in particular in the reflection that made it possible to identify implicit assumptions and blind spots within the existing strategies.

By using the CLA, deeper systemic causes and underlying worldviews that shape existing strategic views could be revealed and challenged. This process led to a better understanding of the company’s own assumptions and strategic direction. Ultimately, this approach has enabled the team to make more conscious and informed decisions and improve strategy development within the organization by critically reviewing and broadening their perspectives.

This method not only broadened the perspective of the Foresight team, but also promoted more intensive strategic discussions within DB Systel. Blechschmidt emphasizes the importance of this analysis, as it is crucial for the development of a realistic and adaptable future strategy.

If you would like to find out more about our methods or would like to implement something similar in your company, we would be happy to talk about it.

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This was the Future Lab on the future of industrial work in Germany

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This year, we launched a large-scale study on the future of German industrial work . Themis Foresight has set itself the task of sharpening the foresight skills of its network and developing forward-looking perspectives in a vision for the future of industrial work in Germany and Europe. In our most recent Future Lab on March 5, 2024 at the Palais Populaire in Berlin, we presented the initial results and discussed them in depth. Together with leading representatives from business, science and society, we looked deep into the possible futures of industry and the associated world of work.

Meeting full of discussion

Under the leadership of Carina Stöttner and Jan Berger, Themis Foresight has initiated a study that looks at the future of industrial work. The first meeting of this project not only brought together the project partners from Deutsche Bahn, Südwestmetall and PrtX, but also our advisory boards and other prominent guests. This diversity of perspectives enriched the discussions and ensured a fruitful exchange.

Insights and outlooks

The event provided a platform for sharing the initial results of our comprehensive study. Carina Stöttner presented a summary of the findings from the first wave of the survey, which forms the basis for our further research. Dr. Joachim Lang from berlin advisors group / strategic minds and ZEIT Online journalist Vanessa Vu provided important impulses for the discussion on the design of our future working world with their contributions on industrial policy and migration in Germany.

The heart of our Future Lab was the work in groups, in which we put five strong future theses to the test. This intensive examination of possible, probable and desirable futures showed once again how important scientific futurology is for shaping our society. The discussions and thinking through the consequences often left us astonished, but always inspired.

The journey continues

With the knowledge we have gained, we are ideally equipped to enter the next phase of our study. The next Future Lab promises to be another important step in the development of scenarios for the future of industrial work. For the next study phase, there will be another opportunity to become involved in the project as a partner company. Interested companies can contact Carina Stöttner at cs@themis-foresight.com.

And on June 18, 2024, the next Future Lab will take place in Stuttgart, where we will develop scenarios. Registration for this is open. The Early Bird price is valid until the end of April 2024. Thanks to our partner Südwestmetall for opening the doors of Look21 for this event.

A heartfelt thank you

Our personal thanks go to everyone who made this Future Lab a success: Jan David Ott for his professional moderation, which enriched our discussions, our advisory boards for their critical and groundbreaking contributions and, of course, our project partners for their generous support and extraordinary discussion points.

The Future Lab has once again shown that the future of industrial work in Germany and Europe lies in our hands. Through our joint efforts and a willingness to think outside the box, we can set the course for a prosperous, fair and sustainable working world.

Register now for the next Future Lab

Carina Stöttner presents the results of the research
The participants engage in lively discussions
During the lecture
In the discussion
The rooms for the events in June
Lecture by Vanessa Vu.
Lecture by Dr. Joachim Lang

Events and workshops in futures research and foresight

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In a rapidly changing world, it is essential for companies not only to rest on their laurels but to actively shape the future. Themis Foresight, a leading think tank in the field of corporate foresight, offers precisely this opportunity. With our specialized events, known as Future Labs, we enable companies to take a deep dive into the possible futures of their industry and tap into new business potential in the long term.

The role of Future Labs in shaping the future

In our Future Labs, we present our research on topics such as the future of industry, future technologies such as AI or quantum computing or our knowledge of studies on future geopolitical developments. One of our experts will present key trends, developments and scenarios, which we will then discuss with participants from various industries. These public Future Labs have been very popular in the past. Participants acquire futures literacy skills by dealing with these topics.

The next dates:

June 18, 2024 – Stuttgart – The future of industry and industrial work

We are also happy to organize a Future Lab specifically for your company, your region, your industry or your strategy. We use practical methods such as future wheels, backcasting and the futures triangle to make complex future scenarios tangible. These methods enable participants to develop innovative visions of the future, scenarios and technology and business model roadmaps.

Our expertise and your benefits

Themis Foresight supports DAX companies and hidden champions in key sectors such as energy, mobility, food, financial services, ICT and logistics in all matters relating to the future. Our experience shows that many managers lack the time to deal with possible futures. This is precisely where our services come in: We not only offer insights into decisive and possible developments in the coming decades, but also identify social, economic and technological drivers that will transform business models and industries. Our in-depth understanding of business models and our experience working with executives will help guide your company into the future.

Science meets practice

Themis Foresight’s futures research is unique in that it combines science-based research with practical futures expertise and entrepreneurial design options. Our strategies are realistic and practicable, geared towards human needs and economic necessities and prepare the ground for economic, political and legal change.

Szenarien für die europäische Wirtschaft

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Scenarios for the European economy

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • Dec 19, 2022
  • Research

What are the scenarios for the European economy? Participants at the Future Lab in Frankfurt discussed this at the end of November.

The growth of the European economy over the past three decades has been based on five main pillars. Cheap energy from Russia, cheap goods from China, cheap liquidity from central banks, cheap security from the U.S. and export of expensive high technologies mainly to Asia. Although varying in scale, none of these conditions will be in place for the next 10-15 years.

In the area of high technologies, Europe is slipping from the top of the world to the second league, geopolitical shifts in the balance of power require a growing commitment to security, deglobalization is increasing the cost of capital, China is competing in the area of high-value industrial plants and products, and in the medium term renewable energies cannot compensate for the loss of cheap fossil energy.

Against this backdrop, Themis Foresight developed five future scenarios of the European economy as part of a major study “Europe’s Economy in a New World Order”, with all scenarios based on achieving the climate-neutral transformation of the economy by 2050 and no global escalation of warlike conflicts between geopolitical power centers.

Our scenarios prove to be a useful basis for companies to examine under which conditions their business models come under pressure in different scenarios and where opportunities open up for securing sustainable business.

We offer to work with companies to look at specific risks and opportunities for their business model and derive recommendations for action.

Project: Impact of the 5 scenarios on your business model

Jan Berger, CEO and project lead of the 10-month research will be happy to introduce you to the topic in a conversation.

Contact

Impressions of our discussions about the topic with our network in Berlin and Frankfurt (May – November 2022)

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Dekarbonisierung: Beratung für Unternehmen

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Decarbonization for business

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • Dec 12, 2022
  • Research

Decarbonization and a reorientation of the energy supply of companies for the future: Themis Foresight is currently researching and advising companies in all sectors on this topic.

How can companies save energy? How can energy costs be reduced? What steps do companies need to take in decarbonization? How can the energy system become more efficient? Which energy technologies will determine the next decades and which investments are worthwhile for companies in the long term? Many companies want to become climate neutral and align their business models with regard to decarbonization. Themis Foresight is currently working with companies from a wide range of industries to examine what this could mean for them individually.

Realignment of the energy supply

What could such a project look like in concrete terms? You can find out more here:

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Neuer Report: Energie-Zukünfte

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New report: Energy futures

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Carina Stöttner
  • October 31, 2022
  • Report

The Digital Report: Energy Futures – 2050.

I am pleased to finally announce today that our study “Energy Futures” has been published.

The current energy price crisis threatens to strangle large parts of the European economy. It is the result of a policy that made Germany unilaterally dependent on one main energy supplier on the one hand, and introduced measures to shut down conventional power generation before a new system of renewable energies could compensate for the shortfalls in base load supply on the other. The debates about who was to blame or complicit in these decisions and when are of little use to our work at this point. 

For the future, however, it is important not to repeat these mistakes in a different form. We need to move away from dependencies and establish an energy system whose components interlock. If we blindly invest in individual technologies today out of a knee-jerk reaction, it may well be that in a few years or decades we will face problems similar to those we face today. This report is a study of the future that shows how things may be in the future. Its time horizon deliberately extends to the year 2050 and in places even beyond.

In the report, futurist Jan Berger and entrepreneur and honorary professor Prof. Lothar Abicht describe the fundamental transformation of the energy system and the economy in the light of the fifth industrial revolution. They impressively explain the extraordinary potential that lies in green power and convincingly demonstrate how existing technologies and innovations will shape energy futures if the right course is set today.

With its depth of perspective, the report is aimed primarily at decision-makers in companies, politics and society. The report takes a well-founded look at photovoltaics, wind and nuclear power, bioenergy and hydrogen from all sides. Readers gain insights into which developments will dominate in the future and which assumptions many are wrong about today. They can use this knowledge to make decisions today.

To the Report

The report is 116 pages long and lists 200 sources. You can find it in our store:

Report

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Future Fashion Retail: Impulse für die Modebranche

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Future Fashion Retail – Impulses for the fashion industry

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • June 01, 2022
  • News

Carina Stöttner spoke about fashion in changing times with an outlook to the year 2035 in her keynote speech.

On May 18, on the initiative of Alexander Gedat, we were able to spend an exciting day with the executives of GERRY WEBER International AG, Ahlers AG, Fynch-Hatton & Sportalm Kitzbühel with our Inspiration Day Future Fashion Retail!

With three presentations to get us started, we provided inspiring future impulses for the industry.

Together, we then examined which future trends and new technologies are changing the business models of companies in the industry and what design options they have. We identified relevant social, economic and technological trends, drivers and players based on the following questions:

What might a future business model look like in the metaverse? What skills does a company that offers mass individualization need? Can premium retail work in stores? And how can sustainable omnichannel fashion be designed?

The lively and entertaining work sessions produced one or two very creative ideas. We will definitely stay tuned and continue to observe where the journey is heading.

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Future Lab: Zukunft der europäischen Wirtschaft

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Future Lab: The future of the European economy

  • Profilbild Themis Foresight

    Themis Foresight
  • May 23, 2022
  • News, Research

fLTR standing: Rolf Christian Kassel, Carsten Brandes, Jürgen Keitel, Dr. Anja Marzuillo, Boris Tawakkoli, Dr. Jutta Krienke, Dr. Ursula Schütze-Kreilkamp, Dr. Marc Achhammer, Jacky Zimmermann, Dr. Olaf Theiler, Dr. Elizabeth Hofvenschiöld, Prof. Dr. Lothar Abicht, Dr. Ewald Böhlke, Christoph Bornschein; f.l. sitting: Michael Stautz, Dr. Matthias Niedenführ, Jan Berger, Carina Stöttner, Norbert Hillinger
Not in the picture: Markus Schorn, Martin Hartmann, Dr. Hinrich Holm, Ingrid Spletter-Weiß.

On May 23, 2022, thought leaders met with Themis Foresight at the Pan Am Lounge in Berlin to develop hypotheses for possible futures of the European economy that take into account the renegotiation of global economic and security policies in a Future Lab.

Future Lab to jointly develop hypotheses for possible futures of the European economy. The background was the renegotiation of global economic and security policy triggered by the Ukraine war.

The day was characterized by exciting impulses and stimulating discussions.

The results will now be further processed in a Delphi study, which will be conducted among economic leaders and policy makers starting in June. If you would like to be kept up to date on the publication of the first results, please subscribe to our newsletter.

We wanted to use the afternoon to say thank you for the support of a dozen people who have actively supported us in our first year. So in this meeting we now also formally constituted our Corporate Advisory Board.

We would like to thank all participants for the intellectual exchange and hope to see you again soon!

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You can get the first glimpses of this research here:

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