In November, Themis Foresight and its network discussed three of the five scenarios for what Europe’s economy could look like in the future. Back from left: Dr. Matthias Niedenführ, Dr. Jutta Krienke, Thomas Köpp, Siv Helen Hesjedal, Carina Stöttner, Dr. Olaf Theiler, Stefanie Foerster, Carsten Brandes, Jan David Ott, Dr. Ursula Schütze-Kreilkamp, Jürgen Keitel, Michael Stautz; Front from left: Jan Berger, Andreas Katzer, Martin Hartmann, Yasmin Krause;

On Nov. 28, the invited guests in Frankfurt discussed three of the five future scenarios for the European economy drafted by Themis Foresight. Siv Helen Hesjedal presented the results of the research of the last months. She spoke with analysts, business and political representatives from all over the world in order to obtain a view of Europe from both the inside and the outside. Based on this, the international team of Themis Foresight designed five scenarios, which differ in their political relations and alignments, economic foundations, degree of technologization and innovation, and social characteristics.

In this second Future Lab, the participants discussed, among other things, which economic structure, which direction of innovation or which corporate landscape determine each of these scenarios.

The results of this research will be published in spring 2023. Together with companies from various industries, Themis Foresight is currently working out what these scenarios could mean for them and their orientation. Interested companies are welcome to contact Carina Stöttner directly for more information.

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Prof. Dr. Lothar Abicht

We have further strengthened our team. Prof. Dr. Lothar Abicht supports us as Senior Associate.

He brings with him his many years of experience and expertise in the combination of technologies and human sciences.

Lothar Abicht is an entrepreneur, honorary professor for adult education, researcher, trainer, sought-after speaker and author of numerous publications and books. He is currently working with Jan Berger on the publication “The 5th Industrial Revolution”.

We are looking forward to working with him!!

Picture: © Christian Kruppa / BDI.

For futurologists, capturing current impressions and moods from industry is a fundamental part of their work. In order to be able to develop well-founded futures, it is also important to look at the conditions in the present and the past.

For this reason, CEO Jan Berger and Managing Director Carina Stöttner visited the Climate Congress of the BDI – Federation of German Industries on September 22. There they gathered first-hand insights from industry leaders.

Clearly audible in terms of the future was: the industry is making great strides in terms of climate targets. The statement from Salzgitter AG CEO Gunnar Groebler was unequivocal: “We will only be able to survive in Europe in the long term if we go down the path of decarbonization.” His company, Groebler said, has set itself the goal of climate neutrality.

For the present, however, the sword of Damocles remained in the room – the simmering energy crisis. Concerns about it were expressed by both sides, politics and business. The demands of business representatives to local political representatives were loud.

While the energy crisis will once again challenge the business case of every company, at the same time companies are facing old familiar obstacles.

What became clear was: When it comes to building renewables, we need to be able to act faster, especially at the local level. Katja Wünschel, CEO RWE Onshore Wind and Solar Europe & Australia, comments: “The goals are ambitious, but implementation is lagging behind. Especially for onshore and solar, we see the biggest challenges at the municipal level. Theoretically, you could get a permit in seven months. In practice, it takes five to seven years. There is a wind farm in Germany that was implemented in two years of development. What went differently here? There was an absolute commitment from everyone involved.”

Commenting on regulatory hurdles, Groebler added, “What we are already building up in terms of regulatory work in Brussels with regard to green hydrogen will slow down the market here by at least five years – other countries will pass us by and we will get into dependencies again. The European Union must allow such an industry to emerge here and thus give energy-intensive industry a chance to stay here as well”

The voices predicting a relocation of production also caused concern. BDI President Siegfried Russwurm mentioned, “20% of German SMEs said in one of our surveys that they are considering relocating production due to high energy prices.”

The words of Markus Steilemann, CEO of plastics manufacturer Covestro AG, were apt: “The situation is very dramatic because we not only have an immense increase on the energy cost side, but also because the customer industries in DE and Europe are staying away.” That, he says, is causing them to run into difficulties on the sales side as well. He says, “We have to find something to bring energy prices down. (…) We invest where there is demand – and right now this is predominantly in Asia, where energy prices are also quite low at the moment.”

The next few months will set a decisive course for the future. To this end, Themis Foresight is publishing the report “Energy Futures,” which is part of the series “The Fifth Industrial Revolution.” In it, Prof. Dr. Lothar Abicht and Jan Berger describe what the economy and energy systems could look like in 2050. The report provides information on what needs to be initiated today so that we do not fall back into the traps of the past.

Energy Futures

Report

Themis Foresight team and Partner Advisory Board members at their inaugural meeting on May 23, 2022.

The Partner Advisory Board is the advisory and supporting body at our side. It is made up of renowned innovators and thought leaders, corporate executives and scientists. With their expertise, the members of the Partner Advisory Board support us in positively shaping the future of business in the German-speaking region.