A Tale of Two Cakes: A Bold Vision for Climate and Industry

Imagine standing at a crossroads. On one side, a path leads to ever-growing industries fueled by innovation, promising prosperity—but it will deplete the planet’s finite resources. On the other, a quieter trail advocates scaling back consumption – meaning less for everyone – to save the environment—yet history tells us that such austerity often comes at the expense of human well-being and social conflicts.

Caught between these diverging roads is the debate of our times: can we reconcile economic growth with planetary health? At Themis Foresight, we believe the answer lies not in choosing one path over the other, but in paving a new one. This vision brought us to the Global Carbon Reward (GCR)—a groundbreaking initiative that could change how we approach climate policy and finance forever.

What Is the GCR?

The Global Carbon Reward is not your typical climate policy. Think of it as a new kind of marketplace—one designed to globally reward climate action rather than punish inaction. Proposed in 2017 and continuously refined since, the GCR introduces a market-based system that offers financial rewards for verified climate mitigation efforts, from reducing emissions to removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Unlike policies that pile on public debt, the GCR scales through market mechanisms, incentivizing change with financial „carrots“ instead of regulatory „sticks.“

Some of you may have encountered this concept before—in the pages of Kim Stanley Robinson’s award-winning novel, Ministry for the Future (widely recommended by Bill Gates or Barack Obama). For us, this fictional introduction sparked a real-world journey to understand how the GCR could solve some of the most pressing challenges we face.

Why “Green Growth” and “Degrowth” Fall Short

As foresight professionals working with companies across Europe, we’ve witnessed firsthand the struggle to balance industrial progress with environmental responsibility. Often, we’ve encountered two polarized arguments:

1. Green Growth: The promise of “decoupling” economic growth from resource consumption is appealing but flawed. Physics, biology, and chemistry impose hard limits. Even if we reduce emissions in one area, we risk overstepping planetary boundaries in others.
2. Degrowth: Cutting consumption and production might reduce emissions but often leads to economic contraction, poverty, and bureaucratic overreach. Historical attempts at planned degrowth have shown us that reducing the size of the “wealth cake” only ignites conflict over its distribution.

These debates often lead nowhere, stuck in a cycle of blame and inaction. It’s a convenient stalemate—but one that solves nothing.

A New Path: Two Cakes

Here’s where our metaphor comes in: instead of arguing over how to slice one cake, let’s bake two cakes.

• The First Cake: Represents our existing industries—producing the goods and services humanity needs.
• The Second Cake: A new economic sector dedicated to climate mitigation and ecological regeneration, harmonized with natural cycles like carbon and nitrogen.

By growing the second cake alongside the first, we can address planetary boundaries without diminishing human prosperity. The total size of the economy becomes the sum of these two cakes, with resources shared between them in a way that mimics the balance seen in natural ecosystems.

This vision is at the heart of the GCR. It transforms climate action into an opportunity, funding innovation and regeneration while ensuring that industries continue to thrive. When we first encountered the GCR and its creator, Dr. Delton Chen, in 2023, we were inspired by this approach. Here was a solution that transcended the false choice between green growth and degrowth.

A Strategic Partnership to Build the Future

Over the past year, our conversations with Dr. Chen and the GCR team deepened into a shared mission. Themis Foresight and the GCR have now entered a strategic partnership to bring this vision to life. Together, we aim to:

1. Advance the GCR’s innovative solution in Europe, creating a model for sustainable climate finance.
2. Engage key stakeholders through Themis Foresight’s extensive network of corporate and policy leaders.
3. Provide actionable insights to guide climate-related decisions across industries.

This collaboration has already borne fruit. From expert insights in foresight projects to joint appearances at events like NORD/LB’s Capital Market Conference, we’re working together to create a future where industries thrive within planetary limits.

What Comes Next?

In the coming weeks and months, we’ll share more about how this partnership is unfolding—what it means for European markets, corporate strategies, and global climate efforts. We’ll explore how the GCR’s mechanisms can turn visionary ideas into practical action.

The journey to climate and economic balance is just beginning. Stay tuned.

With best regards,
Themis Foresight Team