Futures of the European Capital Market: Defense, Digital, Infrastructure & Energy
Europe finds itself at a crossroads. Decades of dependency meet a new global order in which geopolitics sets the pace. This study, developed by Themis Foresight together with NORD/LB, shows why Europe’s fragmented and bank-dominated capital markets are too slow and too inefficient to finance strategic ambitions in defense, digital technologies, energy and infrastructure. It argues for a fundamental modernization of capital allocation so that European savings build European capabilities instead of flowing abroad.
The number is striking. By 2045, around USD 42 trillion must be mobilized. Without this effort, Europe risks funding gaps, mispriced risk and growing external dependencies. Today about 80 percent of defense procurement and 80 percent of corporate spending on cloud and software leave the continent. This weakens sovereignty and negotiating power.
What the study delivers
- Clear investment pathways in four strategic sectors and a sequence for building industrial and technological capacity.
- A structural analysis of Europe’s markets, including the cost of fragmentation, bank dominance and the lack of risk-sharing.
- An action agenda for policymakers and the financial industry that links European procurement with new instruments for large-scale private capital mobilization.
Hoefnagels, Michalski, Tegeler, Berger, Hartmann,Ludwig(2025). Zukünfte des Europäischen Kapitalmarkts: Verteidigung, Digitale Souveränität, Infrastruktur & Energie. Studie von Themis Foresight GmbH, Berlin. Aufgerufen am ___ auf: www.themis-foresight.com/publications/futures-capital-markets
Presseanfragen an:
Eike Wörrlein
eike.woerrlein@themis-foresight.com
Weiterverbreitung:
Zukünfte des Europäischen Kapitalmarkts: Verteidigung, Digitale Souveränität, Infrastruktur & Energie by James Hoefnagels, Katharina Michalski, Felix Tegeler, Jan Berger, Martin Hartmann, Heiko Ludwig is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
