Europe lost the edge in the race for digital, climate, and energy innovation in the first two decades of the 21^st century. With businesses moving their technology and operations to other parts of the world and the G7 having lost its global significance, Europe was forced to rethink its goals. Focused on meeting climate goals, Europe suspends trade conflicts and seeks collaboration with countries and regions that are in the technology lead. Accepting its role as ‘just’ a middle power, Europe flourishes in its focus on climate.

Global Village Europe is a largely self-contained geographic and economic entity. The unified economic and political union is pioneering circularity, modern living within planetary boundaries, and alternatives to raw material extraction. There is a more centralized and integrated market structure, with strong state companies. Innovation thrives, staving off economic decline. The productive sectors of the economy gain a larger share and are fully integrated with computing and digital technologies.

In this scenario, the “global West” maintains its leadership role in the world, with Europe being a junior partner to the U.S. Western dominance is secured through technology dominance, applied innovation, and reshaped relations with developing countries. Markets are competitive with strong growth in innovation and technology sectors. Internal social unity was important for the mobilization of populations. Europe thrives in the shadow of the U.S.  

In 2045, the EU has ceased to exist as a single economic and political union. Operating costs are high amidst uncertainty, financial risk, and renegotiation of trade and other relationships. The market structure is fragmented and decentralized, shifting away from regulated and centralized sectors. Europe is vulnerable. As the rules of trade and cooperation are rewritten, only large and stable businesses seem to weather the storm.  

Business sets the parameters for society in this scenario. In the company state, the aim of society is to make and sell products and services. Government provides business with some guarantees and protections, and in return business finances and orchestrates regional development and social security. The market structure is centralized and hierarchical.  

Each scenario has been built by first setting the geopolitical parameters, the global balance of power, and the level of unity within the EU. Secondly, determining the directionality, strength, and combination of the eight drivers. The radial diagrams illustrate the eight drivers (Geopolitical developments, Security, Regulations and standards, Availability of energy and raw materials, Innovation, Financial infrastructure and systems, Labor, and Social mobility.). Scenario 5 is a counterfactual scenario, where it is business that sets the parameters for society.

In February 2022, Russia’s war against Ukraine had a direct impact on the short- and long-term strategies of business leaders. Themis Foresight’s six-stage research project revealed this in its very first stage. At the start of the project, our researchers asked around 500 decision-makers what economic policy issues were on their minds at the time. The results formed the basis of a Future Lab, in which the advisory board of Themis Foresight formulated hypotheses regarding economic developments. After a second wave of surveys and in-depth interviews with experts from 19 countries and five continents, five scenarios were created. In these scenarios, Themis Foresight researchers explain how the future of European companies can develop in a new era.