Scenarios for the European economy

The growth of the European economy over the past three decades has been based on five main pillars. Cheap energy from Russia, cheap goods from China, cheap liquidity from central banks, cheap security from the U.S. and export of expensive high technologies mainly to Asia. Although varying in scale, none of these conditions will be in place for the next 10-15 years.

In the area of high technologies, Europe is slipping from the top of the world to the second league, geopolitical shifts in the balance of power require a growing commitment to security, deglobalization is increasing the cost of capital, China is competing in the area of high-value industrial plants and products, and in the medium term renewable energies cannot compensate for the loss of cheap fossil energy.

Against this backdrop, Themis Foresight developed five future scenarios of the European economy as part of a major study “Europe’s Economy in a New World Order”, with all scenarios based on achieving the climate-neutral transformation of the economy by 2050 and no global escalation of warlike conflicts between geopolitical power centers.

Our scenarios prove to be a useful basis for companies to examine under which conditions their business models come under pressure in different scenarios and where opportunities open up for securing sustainable business.

We offer to work with companies to look at specific risks and opportunities for their business model and derive recommendations for action.