{"id":10886,"date":"2023-06-22T10:11:57","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T08:11:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/themis-foresight.com\/interview-european-businesses-will-face-many-challenges-in-the-coming-years\/"},"modified":"2024-07-08T11:30:20","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T09:30:20","slug":"interview-european-businesses-will-face-many-challenges-in-the-coming-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/themis-foresight.com\/en\/interview-european-businesses-will-face-many-challenges-in-the-coming-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Interview: European businesses will face many challenges in the coming years"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Jan Berger speaking at the CFO Forum of KPMG in Greece.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n I am happy to reproduce in English an interview that I gave to Greek BusinessNews.gr last week. The original can be found here<\/a>. Thank you Dimitris Tsoukalas<\/a> for the interview!<\/p>\n Shortly before his participation in <\/em> I will discuss how the global shifts in economic weight and interests, technological innovation, and financial infrastructure may impact on the European economy. I will also look at changes within the EU itself and sketch out five scenarios for the European economy that my company, Themis Foresight, has developed over the last year. I’m looking forward to the discussion!<\/p>\n The economies of the EU face several challenges in the coming years. Broadly speaking (and of course there are exceptions), in the last three decades, EU corporations have relied on cheap energy from Russia, cheap commodities from China, cheap security from the U.S., cheap credits from central banks, and the export of high-tech to developing countries in the “global South”. All these premises are gone. It used to be that large manufacturers were in a situation where they could make entire nations dependent on their technologies – not only through the actual products, but through service contracts, consulting, etc. This business model of technology dependence is gone because there are plenty of alternatives on the market. Developing nations are aware of this and leverage these changed conditions in their favor.<\/p>\n Furthermore, the fate of the EU is not decided. Under the impact of the Ukraine war the political center of the EU has shifted from Western Europe further to the East<\/a>. France and Germany are not aligned. Strong anti-EU tendencies have led to BREXIT, and similar exits may be possible. There’s also a fierce competition of different policy outlooks among European leaders. Some favor more centralization in Brussels, others view the EU as a utilitarian bloc. Irredentism, while currently somewhat of a marginal political force, is still very much alive in a number of Eastern EU countries. Currently, the EU seems incapable of formulating a joint strategy that would satisfy all of its member states.<\/p>\n European technology, especially, but not only, in the digital space, are increasingly non-competitive with China and the U.S. And we’re only looking at the beginning of this development. The Australian ASPI institute recently published a report<\/a> in which they compared scientific publications around critical future technologies and came to the conclusion that China is in the lead in 37 out of 44. Formerly developing nations like China or India are making their economic weight felt in the world. G7 GDP (PPP) was surpassed by that of the BRICS states. This gives them leverage in global politics. The African continent will be a major source of economic growth and technological development in the coming decades. This has different implications on different sectors of the economy. Automotive and its suppliers may be hit very hard lest it proves capable of not only mastering the scale-up of electric mobility, but to also develop new mobility concepts. European manufacturing is still very advanced. Yet, other countries are closing the gap or have already surpassed European manufacturers when it comes to new materials.<\/p>\n We also witness a strong regionalization of economic zones. The picture that we’re headed into a global confrontation between China and the U.S. is one-sided and only one scenario. We may also see the development of up to a dozen trade regions that will negotiate new conditions and new rules of trade. This will impact heavily on the logistics sector with new routes, new types of logistics. For example, Europe remains energy-hungry but has foreclosed energy imports from Russia. Last, but not least, energy-intensive industries like chemicals or steel are at a severe competitive disadvantage due to the high energy prices in Europe.<\/p>\n The scenarios are deliberately set for the year 2045. And the purpose of the scenarios was not to determine the likelihood of any one scenario to win out, but rather to enable businesses and politics to jointly discuss the merits of each scenario for their own purpose. Four scenarios are politically driven. A fifth scenario is counterfactual and hypothetical if business had its own way without having to worry too much about political interference. Our scenario “History Ends, Again” discusses the impact for the European economy if the “global West” maintained its leadership in the world, still dominated heavily by the U.S. Our scenario “The Great Exit” looked into the question of what would happen if the EU were to fall apart. In some countries of the EU, we observe strong tendencies of focusing on the internal market only, spiced with concepts of degrowth economics. We called it “Global Village Europe”. And the fourth political scenario “A Flourishing Middle-Power” anticipates a Europe that navigates the global tensions to its own advantage and makes itself less dependent on American security policy. Glimpses of such a scenario could be observed during French president Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n New World Order<\/p>\nInterview between BusinessNews.gr and Jan Berger – Themis Foresight<\/h4>\n
\n KPMG’s 21st CFO Forum<\/a>
\n<\/em> in Greece, the founder and CEO of the think tank Themis Foresight spoke to BusinessNews.gr about the future of the European economy and the challenges and opportunities it may bring.<\/em><\/p>\nWhat will be the scope of your keynote at the 21st CFO Forum in Greece? What will you try to get across to the attendees?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
What are the main changes that you see taking place regarding the European economy in the following years? <\/strong><\/h3>\n
What are the sources and the reasons for these changes and which sectors are going to be affected the most?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
In February Themis Foresight published the document <\/strong>
\n “At the Cusp of A New Era”<\/strong>
\n<\/a> presenting five scenarios for European business in a new world order. Could you present them to us in brief? Which of the five do you think most likely to happen?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Five Scenarios for European Business<\/h2>\n