{"id":7542,"date":"2023-02-13T19:05:05","date_gmt":"2023-02-13T17:05:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/themis-foresight.com\/szenarien-fuer-europaeische-unternehmen-in-einer-neuen-weltordnung-zukunft\/"},"modified":"2023-02-23T20:10:01","modified_gmt":"2023-02-23T18:10:01","slug":"szenarien-fuer-europaeische-unternehmen-in-einer-neuen-weltordnung-zukunft","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/themis-foresight.com\/en\/szenarien-fuer-europaeische-unternehmen-in-einer-neuen-weltordnung-zukunft\/","title":{"rendered":"Scenarios for European Business in a New World Order &#8211; Future"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/2023-02-09-Website-Mockup-png24-EN.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h1>At The Cusp<br \/>Of A New Era<\/h1>\n<h2>Scenarios for European Business in a New World Order<\/h2>\n<div>\n<div>We are entering a new world order. The Russian war on Ukraine heralds the end of an era. While we cannot know what the future world order will look like, we can see the signs of change.<br \/>\nIn this report we discuss what will be relevant for the positioning of European business in such a new era. Themis Foresight spent a year conducting global research on this project. In five scenarios, we present possible futures for the European economy in 2045.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n        <a href=\"#download-studie\">Download Report<\/a>\n    <\/li>\n<li>\n        <a href=\"#Kurzuebersicht\">More about the project<\/a>\n    <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>About the scenarios<\/h2>\n<hr>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">The futures described by these scenarios are plausible, possible, and to varying degrees probable futures for European business. Readers may find some of these scenarios more desirable than others or may find that they desire none of these future worlds. They are not the only possibilities, but they are coherent scenarios that can help us ask critical questions about what we need to do today. There is something to learn from each of the five possible futures we provide here.<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><span><\/span><\/p>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">The intention of these scenarios is that they are used as conversation starters among business leaders and policy makers. The scenarios can be used to evaluate existing strategies, to develop new strategies or to help a business expand their repertoire of risk indicators. <\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><em>Themis Foresight works out impact analyses based on the developments in the scenarios for companies in various industries and business associations.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n        <a href=\"#download-studie\">Download<\/a>\n    <\/li>\n<li>\n        <a href=\"\/en\/service\/projekt-zukuenfte-der-eu-wirtschaft\/\">Project: Case<\/a>\n    <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<h4>About the authors<\/h4>\n<div>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0;\"><strong>Siv Helen Hesjedal<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"uk-text-meta\">Senior Researcher | Themis Foresight<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/siv-helen-hesjedal-97a77323\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"uk-icon-button\" uk-icon=\"linkedin\" style=\"margin-right: 5px;\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a class=\"uk-icon-button\" uk-icon=\"icon: user; ratio: 1.4\" href=\"#Siv-Hesjedal\" uk-toggle><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"Siv-Hesjedal\" class=\"uk-flex-top\" uk-modal>\n<div class=\"uk-modal-dialog uk-modal-body uk-margin-auto-vertical\" style=\"width: 960px;\">\n<p>        <button class=\"uk-modal-close-default\" type=\"button\" uk-close><\/button><\/p>\n<div class=\"tm-grid-expand uk-grid-margin uk-grid\" uk-grid=\"\">\n<div class=\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-1-3@s uk-first-column\">\n<div class=\"uk-margin\">\n        \t\t<img class=\"el-image uk-border-circle\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/themis-foresight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Siv-Hesjedal-web-500x500-1.jpg\" uk-img=\"\">\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-2-3@s\">\n<div class=\"uk-panel uk-margin\">\n<p><strong>Siv Helen Hesjedal<\/strong> is a professional futurist and strategist with over 20 years of international experience in strategic management and futures research. Siv has worked as a strategic advisor to senior politicians and business leaders. After nearly two decades in South Africa, she now works from Norway. She supports clients and directs our project design and foresight methodologies.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0;\"><strong>Jan Berger<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"uk-text-meta\">Founder &amp; CEO | Themis Foresight<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/jan-berger-themis\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"uk-icon-button\" uk-icon=\"linkedin\" style=\"margin-right: 5px;\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a class=\"uk-icon-button\" uk-icon=\"icon: user; ratio: 1.4\" href=\"#Jan-Berger\" uk-toggle><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"Jan-Berger\" class=\"uk-flex-top\" uk-modal>\n<div class=\"uk-modal-dialog uk-modal-body uk-margin-auto-vertical\" style=\"width: 960px;\">\n<p>        <button class=\"uk-modal-close-default\" type=\"button\" uk-close><\/button><\/p>\n<div class=\"tm-grid-expand uk-grid-margin uk-grid\" uk-grid=\"\">\n<div class=\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-1-3@s uk-first-column\">\n<div class=\"uk-margin\">\n        \t\t<img class=\"el-image uk-border-circle\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/themis-foresight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Jan-Berger-1.jpg\" uk-img=\"\">\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-2-3@s\">\n<div class=\"uk-panel uk-margin\">\n<p><strong>Jan Berger<\/strong> is a historian and linguist. He is the founder of Themis Foresight GmbH, a sought-after sparring partner for CEOs and a keynote speaker. He has lived and worked on four continents. He started his career in publishing and then moved to the real estate industry, where he was responsible for building the Russian business for a Danish real estate group. After two years in a digital startup, Jan led the operations of 2b AHEAD ThinkTank for 7 years and founded Themis Foresight in 2021. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0;\"><strong>Dr. Ewald B\u00f6hlke<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"uk-text-meta\">Senior Research Associate GEPA | Advisory Board | Themis Foresight<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/ewald-boehlke-31672580\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"uk-icon-button\" uk-icon=\"linkedin\" style=\"margin-right: 5px;\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a class=\"uk-icon-button\" uk-icon=\"icon: user; ratio: 1.4\" href=\"#Ewald-Boehlke\" uk-toggle><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"Ewald-Boehlke\" class=\"uk-flex-top\" uk-modal>\n<div class=\"uk-modal-dialog uk-modal-body uk-margin-auto-vertical\" style=\"width: 960px;\">\n<p>        <button class=\"uk-modal-close-default\" type=\"button\" uk-close><\/button><\/p>\n<div class=\"tm-grid-expand uk-grid-margin uk-grid\" uk-grid=\"\">\n<div class=\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-1-3@s uk-first-column\">\n<div class=\"uk-margin\">\n        \t\t<img class=\"el-image uk-border-circle\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/themis-foresight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Boehkle.jpeg\" uk-img=\"\">\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-2-3@s\">\n<div class=\"uk-panel uk-margin\">\n<p><strong>Dr. Ewald B\u00f6hlke<\/strong> is a passionate futurist with more than 20 years of professional experience. He is a Senior Research Associate at GEPA Group and focuses on the interactions of technology dynamics and geopolitics in the energy sector. Previous professional positions include Senior Researcher at Daimler AG and Head of the Berthold Beitz Center for Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Dr. Ewald B\u00f6hlke has also held teaching positions at various universities. He is a member of the advisory board of Themis Foresight.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 0;\"><strong>James Hoefnagels<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"uk-text-meta\">Senior Researcher &#038; Strategist | Themis Foresight<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"\/%20https:\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/james-hoefnagels\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"uk-icon-button\" uk-icon=\"linkedin\" style=\"margin-right: 5px;\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a class=\"uk-icon-button\" uk-icon=\"icon: user; ratio: 1.4\" href=\"#James-Hoefnagels \" uk-toggle><\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"James-Hoefnagels\" class=\"uk-flex-top\" uk-modal>\n<div class=\"uk-modal-dialog uk-modal-body uk-margin-auto-vertical\" style=\"width: 960px;\">\n<p>        <button class=\"uk-modal-close-default\" type=\"button\" uk-close><\/button><\/p>\n<div class=\"tm-grid-expand uk-grid-margin uk-grid\" uk-grid=\"\">\n<div class=\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-1-3@s uk-first-column\">\n<div class=\"uk-margin\">\n        \t\t<img class=\"el-image uk-border-circle\" alt=\"\" data-src=\"https:\/\/themis-foresight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/James-hoefnagels-profil.jpg\" uk-img=\"\">\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-2-3@s\">\n<div class=\"uk-panel uk-margin\">\n<p><strong>James Hoefnagels<\/strong> is a political scientist and futures researcher from Canada. He has worked on a wide range of topics including energy, quantum technologies, and global politics. In his work, he analyzes and evaluates emerging trends and their potential impact on businesses. He advises business leaders on how to successfully prepare for potential future scenarios. Prior to joining Themis Foresight, he was a Senior Researcher &#038; Strategist at futures research institute 2b AHEAD, and before that he worked as a Junior Associate at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h6>At a glance<\/h6>\n<hr>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-18.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2>Europe: A flourishing middle power <\/h2>\n<p>Scenario 1<\/p>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Europe lost the edge in the race for digital, climate, and energy innovation in the first two decades of the 21<sup>st<\/sup> century. With businesses moving their technology and operations to other parts of the world and the G7 having lost its global significance, Europe was forced to rethink its goals. Focused on meeting climate goals, Europe suspends trade conflicts and seeks collaboration with countries and regions that are in the technology lead. Accepting its role as \u2018just\u2019 a middle power, Europe flourishes in its focus on climate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-19.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2>Global Village Europe<\/h2>\n<p>Scenario 2<\/p>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Global Village Europe is a largely self-contained geographic and economic entity. The unified economic and political union is pioneering circularity, modern living within planetary boundaries, and alternatives to raw material extraction. There is a more centralized and integrated market structure, with strong state companies. Innovation thrives, staving off economic decline. The productive sectors of the economy gain a larger share and are fully integrated with computing and digital technologies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-20.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2>History ends, again<\/h2>\n<p>Scenario 3<\/p>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this scenario, the \u201cglobal West\u201d maintains its leadership role in the world, with Europe being a junior partner to the U.S. Western dominance is secured through technology dominance, applied innovation, and reshaped relations with developing countries. Markets are competitive with strong growth in innovation and technology sectors. Internal social unity was important for the mobilization of populations. Europe thrives in the shadow of the U.S. \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-21.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2>The great EXIT <\/h2>\n<p>Scenario 4<\/p>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2045, the EU has ceased to exist as a single economic and political union. Operating costs are high amidst uncertainty, financial risk, and renegotiation of trade and other relationships. The market structure is fragmented and decentralized, shifting away from regulated and centralized sectors. Europe is vulnerable. As the rules of trade and cooperation are rewritten, only large and stable businesses seem to weather the storm.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-22.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2>Corporate Europe<\/h2>\n<p>Scenario 5<\/p>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Business sets the parameters for society in this scenario. In the company state, the aim of society is to make and sell products and services. Government provides business with some guarantees and protections, and in return business finances and orchestrates regional development and social security. The market structure is centralized and hierarchical. \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Szenario-Methode-Square.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2>Foundations<\/h2>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span>Each scenario has been built by first setting the geopolitical parameters, the global balance of power, and the level of unity within the EU. Secondly, determining the directionality, strength, and combination of the eight drivers. The radial diagrams illustrate the eight drivers (Geopolitical developments, Security, Regulations and standards, Availability of energy and raw materials, Innovation, Financial infrastructure and systems, Labor, and Social mobility.). Scenario 5 is a counterfactual scenario, where it is business that sets the parameters for society. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/background-blob-yellow-3.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2>Background of the project<\/h2>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In February 2022, Russia&#8217;s war against Ukraine had a direct impact on the short- and long-term strategies of business leaders. Themis Foresight&#8217;s six-stage research project revealed this in its very first stage. At the start of the project, our researchers asked around 500 decision-makers what economic policy issues were on their minds at the time. The results formed the basis of a Future Lab, in which the advisory board of Themis Foresight formulated hypotheses regarding economic developments. After a second wave of surveys and in-depth interviews with experts from 19 countries and five continents, five scenarios were created. In these scenarios, Themis Foresight researchers explain how the future of European companies can develop in a new era.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Introduction<\/h2>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span>Corporate executives of European businesses are faced with a dual task \u2013 navigating the detrimental impacts of the gigantic jump in energy prices, political uncertainties, supply chain disruptions, rising cost of capital, all while being challenged by new EU legal frameworks incurring additional compliance costs <em>and<\/em> charting a long-term course for their businesses. While the European economy has so far proven reassuringly resilient to navigating the Covid and energy crises, it will still have to stand the test of time of long-term transition to a technologically advanced and decarbonized future. The five scenarios proposed in this document aim to assist executives in this task.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In our November analysis we discussed a decoupling between political and business interests. This state carried over into the development of our scenarios. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\n    <a href=\"#download-studie\">Download<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/golden-globe-europe-3.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h2>&#8220;The Western world relied on cheap energy from Russia, cheap goods from Asia, cheap security from the U.S., cheap money from central banks, and the export of expensive high technologies to developing regions of the world. Those days are now over.&#8221;<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/background-fleck.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h1>&#8220;Your studies show that the future may be quite different after all.&#8221;<\/h1>\n<div>\n<p>We offer companies an evaluation of the long-term opportunities, risks and secondary effects of the possible transformation of the European economy. In doing so, we take into account where business areas may come under pressure or are at risk, but above all where new needs for products and services may arise as a result of changing conditions in the global economy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n        <a href=\"#download-studie\">Download Report<\/a>\n    <\/li>\n<li>\n        <a href=\"#video\">References<\/a>\n    <\/li>\n<li>\n        <a href=\"\/en\/service\/projekt-zukuenfte-der-eu-wirtschaft\/\">Insights<\/a>\n    <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"BorlabsCookie _brlbs-cb-vimeo\"><div class=\"_brlbs-content-blocker\"> <div class=\"_brlbs-embed _brlbs-video-vimeo\"> <img class=\"_brlbs-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/themis-foresight.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/borlabs-cookie\/assets\/images\/cb-no-thumbnail.png\" alt=\"Vimeo\"> <div class=\"_brlbs-caption\"> <p>Mit dem Laden des Videos akzeptieren Sie die Datenschutzerkl\u00e4rung von Vimeo.<br><a href=\"https:\/\/vimeo.com\/privacy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Mehr erfahren<\/a><\/p> <p><a class=\"_brlbs-btn _brlbs-icon-play-white\" href=\"#\" data-borlabs-cookie-unblock role=\"button\">Video laden<\/a><\/p> <p><label><input type=\"checkbox\" name=\"unblockAll\" value=\"1\" checked> <small>Vimeo immer entsperren<\/small><\/label><\/p> <\/div> <\/div> <\/div><div class=\"borlabs-hide\" data-borlabs-cookie-type=\"content-blocker\" data-borlabs-cookie-id=\"vimeo\"><script type=\"text\/template\">PHA+PGlmcmFtZSBzcmM9Imh0dHBzOi8vdmltZW8uY29tLzgwMTE5ODgyOSI+PC9pZnJhbWU+PC9wPg==<\/script><\/div><\/div>\n<h2>Behind the scenes<\/h2>\n<div>\n<p><em>Futurist and project lead Siv Helen Hesjedal gives more information about the study.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The one future&#8221; does not exist. There are many futures, all of which contain opportunities, risks and imponderables. Themis Foresight helps you navigate these uncertainties of the coming years. We put you in a position to ensure the success of your company even in the headwinds of the most diverse upheavals.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<hr>\n<h5>Join our Futures Lab<\/h5>\n<h5>We will host a Futures Lab on this topic (German)! You will gain in-depth insights into the study results and be provided with a solid methodology that will enable you to successfully align your company with the changes of the next two decades.<\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<p>Berlin<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<p>April 19, 2023<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n    <a href=\"\/service\/future-labs\/future-lab-szenarien-europas-wirtschaft\/\">More about the event (DE)<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Experts from the study<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Brigitte_Zypries_2022_M_1_231_KB-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Brigitte Zypries<\/h5>\n<div>\n<p>German politician, former Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, <em>Germany.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Abeyagoonasekera-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Prof. Asanga Abeyagoonasekera<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Senior fellow of the Millennium Project, author, international security and geopolitics analyst and strategic advisor,<em> Sri Lanka.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Alba-cela-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Alba \u00c7ela<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Executive Director for the Albanian Institute for International Studies, <em>Albania. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/ivan-briscoe-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Ivan Briescoe<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Former editor El Pa\u00eds English edition and Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, International Crisis Group, <em>Colombia\/UK. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Epaminondas-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Dr. Epaminondas Christophilopoulos<\/h5>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span>Foresight expert and Chief Scientific Advisor, Presidency of the Greek Government, <em>Greece. <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/John-Chrosniak-Kopie-1.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>John Chrosniak<\/h5>\n<div>\n<p>Chief Executive Officer and Board Member at Talam Biotech, <em>Ireland.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Tord-Coucheron-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Tord Coucheron<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Co-Founder and CTO, Unite Global, <em>Norway. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Kerstin-Cuhls-1-2-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Prof. Dr. Kerstin Cuhls<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Coordinator for the project \u2018After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world\u2019 and Scientific Project Manager Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, <em>Germany. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Thomas-Fischer-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Thomas Fischer<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span>Chairperson, MANN + HUMMEL Group,<em> Germany.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Mauricio-Geri-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Dr. Maurizio Geri<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Senior strategic analyst in international security, geopolitics and foresight,\u00a0<\/span><em>Belgium.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Andreas-Goldberg-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Prof. Andreas Goldberg<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Associate Professor in Department of Sociology and Political Science and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, <em>Norway.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Taulant-Hasa2-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Dr. Taulant Hasa<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Postdoctoral Researcher, London School of Economics, <em>United Kingdom. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/vasif-huseyenov-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Dr. Vasif Husyenov<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Head of Department, Center of Analysis of International Relations, <em>Azerbaijan. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Bruno-Jubran-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Dr. Bruno Mariotto Jubran<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">BRICS expert and advisor International Technical Cooperation, Rio Grande do Sul State Government, <em>Brazil.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Nivedite-Kapoor-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Dr. Nivedita Kapoor<\/h5>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span>Post-doctoral Fellow, International Laboratory on World Order Studies and the New Regionalism, Higher School of Economics,<em> Russia. <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Marcel-Kitissou-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Prof. Marcel Kitissou<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Regional Scholar Affiliate, Institute for African Development, Cornell University and\/or Adjunct Professor, Africana Studies Department, The University at Albany,<\/span>\u00a0<em>USA.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Anders-Korsgaard_waiting-permission-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Anders Korsgaard<\/h5>\n<div>\n<p>Founder and CEO Blue World Technologies, <em>Denmark.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/JP-Landman-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>JP Landman<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Futurist, political and economic analyst, <em>South Africa. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Wan-Hsin-Liu-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Dr. Wan-Hsin Liu<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Senior Researcher and Coordinator for the Kiel Centre for Globalization, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, <em>Germany.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Piet-Mouton-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Piet Mouton<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">CEO PSG Group,<em> South Africa. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/TomRaftery-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Tom Raftery<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Sustainability, Climate Change and Supply Chain Expert, <em>Spain. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Alejandro-Reyes-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Prof. Alejandro Reyes<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Director of Knowledge Dissemination, Asian Global Institute, University of Hong Kong,\u00a0<em>Hong Kong.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Sean-Rogers-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Dr. Sean Rogers<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Futurist, Founder and Director, Know Africa Consulting, <em>South Africa. <\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Gudmund-Semb-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Gudmund Semb<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Chief Marketing &amp; Communication Officer MANN+HUMMEL,<em>\u00a0Germany.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Subotic-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Dr. Strahinja Subotic<\/h5>\n<div>\n<div><span lang=\"EN-US\">Programme Manager and Senior Researcher, European Policy Center, <em>Serbia.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Selin-Vural-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Selin Vural<\/h5>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span>Selin Vural, Futurist, Chief Strategy Officer and Founder of X-Ponential, <em>United Arab Emirates. <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Wiese-Kopie.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Cristo Wiese<\/h5>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span>Founder of Titan Finance, investor and business executive, <em>South Africa. <\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/experts.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Other Experts<\/h5>\n<div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span>Speaking on condition of anonymity from China and Kazakhstan. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>We are happy to support you!<\/h3>\n<h2>Interested in the topic?<\/h2>\n<div>\n<p>You would like to bring the topic to your company? Contact us. We offer companies an evaluation of the <em>long-term opportunities<\/em> and <em>risks<\/em> for their business model, present our study results in various depths in the form of <em>workshops<\/em> or <em>keynote speeches<\/em>, or organize <em>in-house Future Labs<\/em> on this topic for you.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:contact@themis-foresight.com\"><\/p>\n<p>contact@themis-foresight.com<\/p>\n<p><\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><a href=\"tel:+491707277325\"><\/p>\n<p>+49 170 72 77 325<\/p>\n<p><\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Contact<\/h4>\n<hr>\n<div>\n<p>    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Carina-Stoettner-1.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<h5>Carina St\u00f6ttner<\/h5>\n<div>\n<p>Managing Director<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Download Study<\/h2>\n<div>\n<noscript class=\"ninja-forms-noscript-message\">\n\tNotice: JavaScript is required for this content.<\/noscript>\n<div id=\"nf-form-40-cont\" class=\"nf-form-cont\" aria-live=\"polite\" 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{\"type\":\"layout\",\"children\":[{\"type\":\"section\",\"props\":{\"animation\":\"scale-down\",\"css\":\".el-section {\\n background: linear-gradient(90deg, rgba(0,21,58,0.8) 0%, rgba(0,21,89,0.8) 26%, rgba(0,21,46,0.8) 57%, rgba(0,21,42,0.8) 100%);\\n}\\n\\n.uk-background-center-left {\\n \\tbackground-position: 50vw calc(50% + 2vh);\\n background-size: auto 66%;\\n}\",\"height\":\"full\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/2023-02-09-Website-Mockup-png24-EN.png\",\"image_effect\":\"fixed\",\"image_position\":\"center-left\",\"image_size\":\"contain\",\"media_visibility\":\"m\",\"preserve_color\":false,\"style\":\"primary\",\"title_breakpoint\":\"xl\",\"title_position\":\"top-left\",\"title_rotation\":\"left\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width\":\"xlarge\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"row\",\"children\":[{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"css\":\"@media (min-width: 1600px) {\\n.el-column {\\n padding-top: 140px;\\n padding-bottom: 140px;\\n}\\n}\",\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width_medium\":\"3-5\",\"width_small\":\"\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"image\",\"props\":{\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/2023-02-09-Website-Mockup-png24-EN.png\",\"image_svg_color\":\"emphasis\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"visibility\":\"hidden-m\"}},{\"type\":\"headline\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"At The Cusp<br \\\/>Of A New Era\",\"css\":\".el-element {\\n    text-transform: uppercase;\\n    font-weight: 300;\\n}\\n\\n.el-element h1 {\\n    margin-top: 0 !important;\\n}\",\"title_element\":\"h1\",\"title_font_family\":\"default\"}},{\"type\":\"headline\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"Scenarios for European Business in a New World Order\",\"css\":\".el-element {\\n    text-transform: uppercase;\\n    font-weight: 300;\\n}\\n\\n.el-element h1 {\\n    margin-top: 0 !important;\\n}\",\"maxwidth\":\"xlarge\",\"title_element\":\"h2\",\"title_font_family\":\"default\",\"title_style\":\"h4\"}},{\"type\":\"text\",\"props\":{\"column_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"content\":\"\n\n<div>We are entering a new world order. The Russian war on Ukraine heralds the end of an era. While we cannot know what the future world order will look like, we can see the signs of change.\\nIn this report we discuss what will be relevant for the positioning of European business in such a new era. Themis Foresight spent a year conducting global research on this project. In five scenarios, we present possible futures for the European economy in 2045.<\\\/div>\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"maxwidth\":\"xlarge\",\"text_color\":\"muted\"}},{\"type\":\"button\",\"props\":{\"grid_column_gap\":\"small\",\"grid_row_gap\":\"small\",\"margin\":\"default\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"button_item\",\"props\":{\"button_style\":\"primary\",\"content\":\"Download Report\",\"icon_align\":\"left\",\"link\":\"#download-studie\"}},{\"type\":\"button_item\",\"props\":{\"button_style\":\"secondary\",\"content\":\"More about the project\",\"icon_align\":\"left\",\"link\":\"#Kurzuebersicht\"}}]}]},{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"image\":\"\",\"image_effect\":\"fixed\",\"image_height\":\"600px\",\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"image_size\":\"height-1-1\",\"image_width\":\"auto\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width_medium\":\"2-5\",\"width_small\":\"\"},\"children\":[]}],\"props\":{\"column_gap\":\"collapse\",\"layout\":\"3-5,2-5\",\"row_gap\":\"collapse\"}}],\"name\":\"header\"},{\"type\":\"section\",\"props\":{\"animation\":\"scale-up\",\"id\":\"Kurzuebersicht\",\"image\":\"\",\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"padding_remove_bottom\":false,\"style\":\"default\",\"title_breakpoint\":\"xl\",\"title_position\":\"top-left\",\"title_rotation\":\"left\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width\":\"large\",\"width_expand\":\"right\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"row\",\"props\":{\"layout\":\"1-2,1-2\",\"match\":false},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"css\":\".el-column {\\n    z-index: 2;\\n}\",\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width_medium\":\"1-2\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"headline\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"About the scenarios\",\"title_element\":\"h2\"}},{\"type\":\"divider\",\"props\":{\"divider_element\":\"hr\",\"divider_style\":\"small\"}},{\"type\":\"text\",\"props\":{\"column_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"content\":\"\n\n<div><span lang=\\\"EN-US\\\">The futures described by these scenarios are plausible, possible, and to varying degrees probable futures for European business. Readers may find some of these scenarios more desirable than others or may find that they desire none of these future worlds. They are not the only possibilities, but they are coherent scenarios that can help us ask critical questions about what we need to do today. There is something to learn from each of the five possible futures we provide here.<\\\/span><\\\/div>\\n\n\n<div><\\\/div>\\n\n\n<div><span><\\\/span>\\n\n\n<div><span lang=\\\"EN-US\\\">The intention of these scenarios is that they are used as conversation starters among business leaders and policy makers. The scenarios can be used to evaluate existing strategies, to develop new strategies or to help a business expand their repertoire of risk indicators. <\\\/span><\\\/div>\\n\n\n<div><\\\/div>\\n\n\n<div><em>Themis Foresight works out impact analyses based on the developments in the scenarios for companies in various industries and business associations.<\\\/em><\\\/div>\\n<\\\/div>\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"text_align\":\"justify\"}},{\"type\":\"button\",\"props\":{\"grid_column_gap\":\"small\",\"grid_row_gap\":\"small\",\"margin\":\"medium\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"button_item\",\"props\":{\"button_style\":\"primary\",\"content\":\"Download\",\"icon_align\":\"left\",\"link\":\"#download-studie\",\"link_target\":\"blank\"}},{\"type\":\"button_item\",\"props\":{\"button_style\":\"text\",\"content\":\"Project: Case\",\"icon_align\":\"left\",\"link\":\"en\\\/service\\\/projekt-zukuenfte-der-eu-wirtschaft\\\/\",\"link_target\":\"blank\"}}]}]},{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"css\":\".el-column {\\n    z-index: 2;\\n}\",\"image\":\"\",\"image_effect\":\"parallax\",\"image_parallax_bgy\":\"-150,150\",\"image_parallax_easing\":\"1\",\"image_position\":\"center-left\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"padding\":\"none\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width_medium\":\"1-2\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"panel\",\"props\":{\"block_align\":\"right\",\"content\":\"\n\n<p style=\\\"margin-bottom: 0;\\\"><strong>Siv Helen Hesjedal<\\\/strong><\\\/p>\\n\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-text-meta\\\">Senior Researcher | Themis Foresight<\\\/div>\\n\n\n<p><a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/siv-helen-hesjedal-97a77323\\\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" class=\\\"uk-icon-button\\\" uk-icon=\\\"linkedin\\\" style=\\\"margin-right: 5px;\\\"><\\\/a>\\n\\n  \\n<a class=\\\"uk-icon-button\\\" uk-icon=\\\"icon: user; ratio: 1.4\\\" href=\\\"#Siv-Hesjedal\\\" uk-toggle><\\\/a>\\n\\n\n\n<div id=\\\"Siv-Hesjedal\\\" class=\\\"uk-flex-top\\\" uk-modal>\\n  \n\n<div class=\\\"uk-modal-dialog uk-modal-body uk-margin-auto-vertical\\\" style=\\\"width: 960px;\\\">\\n\\n        <button class=\\\"uk-modal-close-default\\\" type=\\\"button\\\" uk-close><\\\/button>\\n\\n    \n\n<div class=\\\"tm-grid-expand uk-grid-margin uk-grid\\\" uk-grid=\\\"\\\">\\n\\t\\t\\n\\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-1-3@s uk-first-column\\\">\\n        \\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-margin\\\">\\n        \\t\\t<img class=\\\"el-image uk-border-circle\\\" alt=\\\"\\\" data-src=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/themis-foresight.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/11\\\/Siv-Hesjedal-web-500x500-1.jpg\\\" uk-img=\\\"\\\"> \\n\\t\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\t\\n\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\n\\n\\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-2-3@s\\\">\\n     \\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-panel uk-margin\\\">\\n\\t\\t\\t\\t\n\n<p><strong>Siv Helen Hesjedal<\\\/strong> is a professional futurist and strategist with over 20 years of international experience in strategic management and futures research. Siv has worked as a strategic advisor to senior politicians and business leaders. After nearly two decades in South Africa, she now works from Norway. She supports clients and directs our project design and foresight methodologies.<\\\/p>\\n\\t\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\n    \\t<\\\/div>\\n\\t<\\\/div>\\n\\n  <\\\/div>\\n<\\\/div>\\n\\t\\n\\n\n\n<hr \\\/>\\n\n\n<p style=\\\"margin-bottom: 0;\\\"><strong>Jan Berger<\\\/strong><\\\/p>\\n\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-text-meta\\\">Founder &amp; CEO | Themis Foresight<\\\/div>\\n\n\n<p><a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/jan-berger-themis\\\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" class=\\\"uk-icon-button\\\" uk-icon=\\\"linkedin\\\" style=\\\"margin-right: 5px;\\\"><\\\/a>\\n\\t\\n\\t\\n<a class=\\\"uk-icon-button\\\" uk-icon=\\\"icon: user; ratio: 1.4\\\" href=\\\"#Jan-Berger\\\" uk-toggle><\\\/a>\\n\\n\n\n<div id=\\\"Jan-Berger\\\" class=\\\"uk-flex-top\\\" uk-modal>\\n  \n\n<div class=\\\"uk-modal-dialog uk-modal-body uk-margin-auto-vertical\\\" style=\\\"width: 960px;\\\">\\n\\n        <button class=\\\"uk-modal-close-default\\\" type=\\\"button\\\" uk-close><\\\/button>\\n\\n    \n\n<div class=\\\"tm-grid-expand uk-grid-margin uk-grid\\\" uk-grid=\\\"\\\">\\n\\t\\t\\n\\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-1-3@s uk-first-column\\\">\\n        \\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-margin\\\">\\n        \\t\\t<img class=\\\"el-image uk-border-circle\\\" alt=\\\"\\\" data-src=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/themis-foresight.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/06\\\/Jan-Berger-1.jpg\\\" uk-img=\\\"\\\"> \\n\\t\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\t\\n\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\n\\n\\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-2-3@s\\\">\\n     \\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-panel uk-margin\\\">\\n\\t\\t\\t\\t\n\n<p><strong>Jan Berger<\\\/strong> is a historian and linguist. He is the founder of Themis Foresight GmbH, a sought-after sparring partner for CEOs and a keynote speaker. He has lived and worked on four continents. He started his career in publishing and then moved to the real estate industry, where he was responsible for building the Russian business for a Danish real estate group. After two years in a digital startup, Jan led the operations of 2b AHEAD ThinkTank for 7 years and founded Themis Foresight in 2021. \n\n<p>\\n\\t\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\n    \\t<\\\/div>\\n\\t<\\\/div>\\n\\n  <\\\/div>\\n<\\\/div>\\n\\t\\n\\t\\n\n\n<hr \\\/>\\n\n\n<p style=\\\"margin-bottom: 0;\\\"><strong>Dr. Ewald B\\u00f6hlke<\\\/strong><\\\/p>\\n\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-text-meta\\\">Senior Research Associate GEPA | Advisory Board | Themis Foresight<\\\/div>\\n\n\n<p><a href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/ewald-boehlke-31672580\\\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" class=\\\"uk-icon-button\\\" uk-icon=\\\"linkedin\\\" style=\\\"margin-right: 5px;\\\"><\\\/a>\\n\\t\\n\\t\\n<a class=\\\"uk-icon-button\\\" uk-icon=\\\"icon: user; ratio: 1.4\\\" href=\\\"#Ewald-Boehlke\\\" uk-toggle><\\\/a>\\n\\n\n\n<div id=\\\"Ewald-Boehlke\\\" class=\\\"uk-flex-top\\\" uk-modal>\\n  \n\n<div class=\\\"uk-modal-dialog uk-modal-body uk-margin-auto-vertical\\\" style=\\\"width: 960px;\\\">\\n\\n        <button class=\\\"uk-modal-close-default\\\" type=\\\"button\\\" uk-close><\\\/button>\\n\\n    \n\n<div class=\\\"tm-grid-expand uk-grid-margin uk-grid\\\" uk-grid=\\\"\\\">\\n\\t\\t\\n\\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-1-3@s uk-first-column\\\">\\n        \\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-margin\\\">\\n        \\t\\t<img class=\\\"el-image uk-border-circle\\\" alt=\\\"\\\" data-src=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/themis-foresight.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/06\\\/Boehkle.jpeg\\\" uk-img=\\\"\\\"> \\n\\t\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\t\\n\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\n\\n\\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-2-3@s\\\">\\n     \\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-panel uk-margin\\\">\\n\\t\\t\\t\\t\n\n<p><strong>Dr. Ewald B\\u00f6hlke<\\\/strong> is a passionate futurist with more than 20 years of professional experience. He is a Senior Research Associate at GEPA Group and focuses on the interactions of technology dynamics and geopolitics in the energy sector. Previous professional positions include Senior Researcher at Daimler AG and Head of the Berthold Beitz Center for Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Dr. Ewald B\\u00f6hlke has also held teaching positions at various universities. He is a member of the advisory board of Themis Foresight.<\\\/p>\\n\\t\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\n    \\t<\\\/div>\\n\\t<\\\/div>\\n\\n  <\\\/div>\\n<\\\/div>\\n\n\n<hr \\\/>\\n\n\n<p style=\\\"margin-bottom: 0;\\\"><strong>James Hoefnagels<\\\/strong><\\\/p>\\n\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-text-meta\\\">Senior Researcher & Strategist | Themis Foresight<\\\/div>\\n\n\n<p><a href=\\\" https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/james-hoefnagels\\\/\\\" target=\\\"_blank\\\" class=\\\"uk-icon-button\\\" uk-icon=\\\"linkedin\\\" style=\\\"margin-right: 5px;\\\"><\\\/a>\\n\\t\\n\\t\\n<a class=\\\"uk-icon-button\\\" uk-icon=\\\"icon: user; ratio: 1.4\\\" href=\\\"#James-Hoefnagels \\\" uk-toggle><\\\/a>\\n\\n\n\n<div id=\\\"James-Hoefnagels\\\" class=\\\"uk-flex-top\\\" uk-modal>\\n  \n\n<div class=\\\"uk-modal-dialog uk-modal-body uk-margin-auto-vertical\\\" style=\\\"width: 960px;\\\">\\n\\n        <button class=\\\"uk-modal-close-default\\\" type=\\\"button\\\" uk-close><\\\/button>\\n\\n    \n\n<div class=\\\"tm-grid-expand uk-grid-margin uk-grid\\\" uk-grid=\\\"\\\">\\n\\t\\t\\n\\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-1-3@s uk-first-column\\\">\\n        \\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-margin\\\">\\n        \\t\\t<img class=\\\"el-image uk-border-circle\\\" alt=\\\"\\\" data-src=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/themis-foresight.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/10\\\/James-hoefnagels-profil.jpg\\\" uk-img=\\\"\\\"> \\n\\t\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\t\\n\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\n\\n\\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-grid-item-match uk-flex-middle uk-width-2-3@s\\\">\\n     \\t\\t\n\n<div class=\\\"uk-panel uk-margin\\\">\\n\\t\\t\\t\\t\n\n<p><strong>James Hoefnagels<\\\/strong> is a political scientist and futures researcher from Canada. He has worked on a wide range of topics including energy, quantum technologies, and global politics. In his work, he analyzes and evaluates emerging trends and their potential impact on businesses. He advises business leaders on how to successfully prepare for potential future scenarios. Prior to joining Themis Foresight, he was a Senior Researcher & Strategist at futures research institute 2b AHEAD, and before that he worked as a Junior Associate at the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.<\\\/p>\\n\\t\\t\\t<\\\/div>\\n    \\t<\\\/div>\\n\\t<\\\/div>\\n\\n  <\\\/div>\\n<\\\/div>\\n\",\"content_column_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"css\":\".el-element {\\n    background: linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(126,115,87,1) 0%, rgba(194,163,20,1) 26%, rgba(220,179,0,1) 57%, rgba(255,223,81,1) 100%);\\n    width:500px\\n}\",\"icon_width\":80,\"image_align\":\"top\",\"image_grid_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"image_grid_width\":\"1-2\",\"image_svg_color\":\"emphasis\",\"link_style\":\"default\",\"link_text\":\"Read more\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"maxwidth\":\"2xlarge\",\"meta_align\":\"below-title\",\"meta_element\":\"div\",\"meta_style\":\"text-meta\",\"panel_padding\":\"small\",\"panel_style\":\"card-secondary\",\"title\":\"About the authors\",\"title_align\":\"top\",\"title_element\":\"h4\",\"title_grid_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"title_grid_width\":\"1-2\",\"title_hover_style\":\"reset\"}}]}]}],\"name\":\"In K\\u00fcrze oben\"},{\"type\":\"section\",\"props\":{\"animation\":\"fade\",\"attributes\":\"\",\"css\":\".el-section {\\n    background: linear-gradient(90deg, rgba(0,21,58,0.8) 0%, rgba(0,21,89,0.8) 26%, rgba(0,21,46,0.8) 57%, rgba(0,21,42,0.8) 100%);\\n}\\n\",\"id\":\"keystatements\",\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"style\":\"primary\",\"title_breakpoint\":\"xl\",\"title_position\":\"top-left\",\"title_rotation\":\"left\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width\":\"large\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"row\",\"children\":[{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"headline\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"At a glance\",\"title_element\":\"h6\"}},{\"type\":\"divider\",\"props\":{\"css\":\".el-element:after {\\n  \\tborder-color: #fff;\\n}\",\"divider_element\":\"hr\",\"divider_style\":\"small\",\"margin\":\"medium\"}},{\"type\":\"panel-slider\",\"props\":{\"content_column_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"content_style\":\"text-lead\",\"icon_width\":80,\"image_align\":\"left\",\"image_border\":\"circle\",\"image_grid_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"image_grid_width\":\"1-4\",\"image_link\":true,\"image_svg_color\":\"emphasis\",\"image_transition\":\"scale-up\",\"link_style\":\"default\",\"link_text\":\"Read more\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"meta_align\":\"below-title\",\"meta_element\":\"div\",\"meta_style\":\"text-meta\",\"nav\":\"dotnav\",\"nav_align\":\"center\",\"nav_breakpoint\":\"\",\"nav_color\":\"\",\"nav_margin\":\"large\",\"panel_card_match\":false,\"show_content\":true,\"show_image\":true,\"show_link\":true,\"show_meta\":true,\"show_title\":true,\"slidenav\":\"default\",\"slidenav_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"slidenav_color\":\"\",\"slidenav_large\":true,\"slidenav_margin\":\"medium\",\"slidenav_outside_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"slidenav_outside_color\":\"\",\"slider_autoplay\":false,\"slider_autoplay_interval\":\"10\",\"slider_autoplay_pause\":false,\"slider_center\":false,\"slider_gap\":\"default\",\"slider_width\":\"fixed\",\"slider_width_default\":\"1-1\",\"slider_width_medium\":\"\",\"slider_width_xlarge\":\"\",\"title_align\":\"top\",\"title_element\":\"h2\",\"title_grid_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"title_grid_width\":\"1-2\",\"title_hover_style\":\"reset\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"panel-slider_item\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"\n\n<p style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\">Europe lost the edge in the race for digital, climate, and energy innovation in the first two decades of the 21<sup>st<\\\/sup> century. With businesses moving their technology and operations to other parts of the world and the G7 having lost its global significance, Europe was forced to rethink its goals. Focused on meeting climate goals, Europe suspends trade conflicts and seeks collaboration with countries and regions that are in the technology lead. Accepting its role as \\u2018just\\u2019 a middle power, Europe flourishes in its focus on climate.<\\\/p>\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-18.png\",\"meta\":\"Scenario 1\",\"title\":\"Europe: A flourishing middle power \"}},{\"type\":\"panel-slider_item\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"\n\n<p style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\">Global Village Europe is a largely self-contained geographic and economic entity. The unified economic and political union is pioneering circularity, modern living within planetary boundaries, and alternatives to raw material extraction. There is a more centralized and integrated market structure, with strong state companies. Innovation thrives, staving off economic decline. The productive sectors of the economy gain a larger share and are fully integrated with computing and digital technologies.<\\\/p>\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-19.png\",\"meta\":\"Scenario 2\",\"title\":\"Global Village Europe\"}},{\"type\":\"panel-slider_item\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"\n\n<p style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\">In this scenario, the \\u201cglobal West\\u201d maintains its leadership role in the world, with Europe being a junior partner to the U.S. Western dominance is secured through technology dominance, applied innovation, and reshaped relations with developing countries. Markets are competitive with strong growth in innovation and technology sectors. Internal social unity was important for the mobilization of populations. Europe thrives in the shadow of the U.S. \\u00a0<\\\/p>\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-20.png\",\"meta\":\"Scenario 3\",\"title\":\"History ends, again\"}},{\"type\":\"panel-slider_item\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"\n\n<p style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\">In 2045, the EU has ceased to exist as a single economic and political union. Operating costs are high amidst uncertainty, financial risk, and renegotiation of trade and other relationships. The market structure is fragmented and decentralized, shifting away from regulated and centralized sectors. Europe is vulnerable. As the rules of trade and cooperation are rewritten, only large and stable businesses seem to weather the storm.\\u00a0\\u00a0<\\\/p>\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-21.png\",\"meta\":\"Scenario 4\",\"title\":\"The great EXIT \"}},{\"type\":\"panel-slider_item\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"\n\n<p style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\">Business sets the parameters for society in this scenario. In the company state, the aim of society is to make and sell products and services. Government provides business with some guarantees and protections, and in return business finances and orchestrates regional development and social security. The market structure is centralized and hierarchical. \\u00a0<\\\/p>\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/2023-02-09-illustrations-transparent-22.png\",\"meta\":\"Scenario 5\",\"title\":\"Corporate Europe\"}},{\"type\":\"panel-slider_item\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"\n\n<p style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\"><span>Each scenario has been built by first setting the geopolitical parameters, the global balance of power, and the level of unity within the EU. Secondly, determining the directionality, strength, and combination of the eight drivers. The radial diagrams illustrate the eight drivers (Geopolitical developments, Security, Regulations and standards, Availability of energy and raw materials, Innovation, Financial infrastructure and systems, Labor, and Social mobility.). Scenario 5 is a counterfactual scenario, where it is business that sets the parameters for society. <\\\/span><\\\/p>\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/Szenario-Methode-Square.png\",\"title\":\"Foundations\"}},{\"type\":\"panel-slider_item\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"\n\n<p style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\">In February 2022, Russia's war against Ukraine had a direct impact on the short- and long-term strategies of business leaders. Themis Foresight's six-stage research project revealed this in its very first stage. At the start of the project, our researchers asked around 500 decision-makers what economic policy issues were on their minds at the time. The results formed the basis of a Future Lab, in which the advisory board of Themis Foresight formulated hypotheses regarding economic developments. After a second wave of surveys and in-depth interviews with experts from 19 countries and five continents, five scenarios were created. In these scenarios, Themis Foresight researchers explain how the future of European companies can develop in a new era.<\\\/p>\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/background-blob-yellow-3.png\",\"title\":\"Background of the project\"}}]}]}]}]},{\"type\":\"section\",\"props\":{\"animation\":\"scale-up\",\"id\":\"Warum-ethische-KI\",\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"padding\":\"xlarge\",\"padding_remove_top\":false,\"style\":\"default\",\"title_breakpoint\":\"xl\",\"title_position\":\"top-left\",\"title_rotation\":\"left\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width\":\"large\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"row\",\"props\":{\"column_gap\":\"large\",\"layout\":\"2-5,3-5\",\"row_gap\":\"large\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"css\":\".el-column {\\n    z-index: 2;\\n}\",\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width_medium\":\"2-5\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"headline\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"Introduction\",\"title_element\":\"h2\"}},{\"type\":\"text\",\"props\":{\"column_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"content\":\"\n\n<p style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\"><span>Corporate executives of European businesses are faced with a dual task \\u2013 navigating the detrimental impacts of the gigantic jump in energy prices, political uncertainties, supply chain disruptions, rising cost of capital, all while being challenged by new EU legal frameworks incurring additional compliance costs <em>and<\\\/em> charting a long-term course for their businesses. While the European economy has so far proven reassuringly resilient to navigating the Covid and energy crises, it will still have to stand the test of time of long-term transition to a technologically advanced and decarbonized future. The five scenarios proposed in this document aim to assist executives in this task.<\\\/span><\\\/p>\\n\n\n<p style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\"><span style=\\\"font-weight: 400;\\\">In our November analysis we discussed a decoupling between political and business interests. This state carried over into the development of our scenarios. <\\\/span><\\\/p>\",\"css\":\".el-element {\\n  background: -webkit-linear-gradient(#000 75%, transparent);\\n  -webkit-background-clip: text;\\n  -webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;\\n}\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"text_align\":\"justify\"}},{\"type\":\"button\",\"props\":{\"grid_column_gap\":\"small\",\"grid_row_gap\":\"small\",\"margin\":\"medium\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"button_item\",\"props\":{\"button_style\":\"secondary\",\"content\":\"Download\",\"icon_align\":\"left\",\"link\":\"#download-studie\",\"link_target\":\"blank\"}}]}]},{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"css\":\".el-column {\\n    z-index: 2;\\n}\",\"image\":\"\",\"image_effect\":\"parallax\",\"image_parallax_bgy\":\"-150,150\",\"image_parallax_easing\":\"1\",\"image_position\":\"top-center\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width_medium\":\"3-5\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"image\",\"props\":{\"animation\":\"parallax\",\"block_align\":\"center\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/golden-globe-europe-3.png\",\"image_svg_color\":\"emphasis\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"maxwidth\":\"large\",\"parallax_easing\":\"1\",\"parallax_scale\":\"0.7,1.5\",\"parallax_zindex\":false}},{\"type\":\"headline\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"\\\"The Western world relied on cheap energy from Russia, cheap goods from Asia, cheap security from the U.S., cheap money from central banks, and the export of expensive high technologies to developing regions of the world. Those days are now over.\\\"\",\"css\":\".el-element {\\n    font-size: 40px;\\n}\\n    \\n.el-element .uk-text-background {\\n    background-image: linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(126,115,87,1) 0%, rgba(194,163,20,1) 50%, rgba(220,179,0,1) 100%);\\n}\\n\\n@media (max-width: 640px) {\\n.el-element {\\n    font-size: 30px;\\n}\\n}\",\"text_align\":\"center\",\"title_color\":\"background\",\"title_element\":\"h2\"}}]}]},{\"type\":\"row\",\"props\":{\"column_gap\":\"large\",\"layout\":\"2-5,3-5\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width_medium\":\"2-5\"},\"children\":[]},{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"css\":\".el-column {\\n    position: relative;\\n    bottom: 1000px;\\n    height: 0;\\n    z-index: 1;\\n}\",\"image\":\"\",\"image_effect\":\"parallax\",\"image_parallax_bgy\":\"-150,150\",\"image_parallax_easing\":\"1\",\"image_position\":\"top-center\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width_medium\":\"3-5\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"image\",\"props\":{\"animation\":\"parallax\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/02\\\/background-fleck.png\",\"image_svg_color\":\"emphasis\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"parallax_easing\":\"1\",\"parallax_rotate\":\"0,50\",\"parallax_scale\":\"1,0.5\"}}]}]}],\"name\":\"Warum ethische KI\"},{\"type\":\"section\",\"props\":{\"animation\":\"fade\",\"height\":\"full\",\"image\":\"wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/weltwirtschaft-zukunft.jpg\",\"image_effect\":\"fixed\",\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"image_size\":\"cover\",\"media_overlay\":\"rgba(35, 37, 59, 0.85)\",\"style\":\"secondary\",\"title_breakpoint\":\"xl\",\"title_position\":\"top-left\",\"title_rotation\":\"left\",\"vertical_align\":\"middle\",\"width\":\"small\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"row\",\"props\":{\"layout\":\"4-5,1-5\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"column\",\"props\":{\"image_position\":\"center-center\",\"media_overlay_gradient\":\"\",\"position_sticky_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"width_medium\":\"4-5\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"headline\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"\\\"Your studies show that the future may be quite different after all.\\\"\",\"css\":\"@media (max-width: 640px) {\\n.el-element {\\n    font-size: 40px;\\n}\\n}\",\"title_element\":\"h1\"}},{\"type\":\"text\",\"props\":{\"column_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"content\":\"\n\n<p>We offer companies an evaluation of the long-term opportunities, risks and secondary effects of the possible transformation of the European economy. 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There are many futures, all of which contain opportunities, risks and imponderables. Themis Foresight helps you navigate these uncertainties of the coming years. We put you in a position to ensure the success of your company even in the headwinds of the most diverse upheavals.<\\\/p>\",\"margin\":\"default\"}},{\"type\":\"divider\",\"props\":{\"divider_align\":\"\",\"divider_element\":\"hr\",\"divider_style\":\"small\",\"margin\":\"large\",\"margin_remove_bottom\":true,\"maxwidth\":\"small\"}},{\"type\":\"headline\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"Join our Futures Lab\",\"css\":\".el-element {\\n    color: #d0af2a;\\n}\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"margin_remove_bottom\":true,\"title_element\":\"h5\",\"title_style\":\"text-lead\"}},{\"type\":\"headline\",\"props\":{\"content\":\"We will host a Futures Lab on this topic (German)! You will gain in-depth insights into the study results and be provided with a solid methodology that will enable you to successfully align your company with the changes of the next two decades.\",\"css\":\".el-element {\\n    color: #d0af2a;\\n}\",\"margin\":\"default\",\"margin_remove_bottom\":true,\"title_element\":\"h5\"}},{\"type\":\"list\",\"props\":{\"class\":\"\",\"column_breakpoint\":\"m\",\"css\":\".uk-icon {\\n    background-color: #d0af2a;\\n  \\tborder-radius: 100%;\\n  \\tcolor: #fff;\\n    padding: 5px;\\n}\\n\\n.uk-icon:hover {\\n  \\tcolor: #000;\\n}\",\"image_align\":\"left\",\"image_svg_color\":\"emphasis\",\"image_vertical_align\":true,\"list_element\":\"ul\",\"list_horizontal_separator\":\", 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