Foresight?\u00a0<\/span>What Methods<\/span>\u00a0do we use?<\/p>\n<\/h1>\n
\n
![\"Zukunftsforschung](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/icon-outlook-new-2.svg\"){kind=icon}
<\/p>\n
What is Futures Research?<\/h2>\n
Futures Research is the “scientific study of possible, desirable and probable future developments and design options as well as their preconditions in the past and present.” (Kreibich, 2006)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
More about our Futures Research <\/h3>\n\nAlthough it could not be further from the truth, futures research is repeatedly confronted with the prejudice of fortune-telling. At Themis Foresight, we understand foresight in the sense of Rolf Kreibich as “the scientific concern with possible, desirable and probable future developments and design options as well as their preconditions in the past and present.”<\/p>\n
The world we live in is complex and volatile, the world of tomorrow is even more diverse than the world of today. Simple answers are not enough. Those who want to understand the future do not need echo chambers, but new options for action and fresh thoughts that make complexity tangible. At Themis Foresight, we therefore attach great importance to scientific rigour and interdisciplinarity, which is also reflected in our team. We consciously distinguish ourselves from pure trend research, which focuses on short- and medium-term developments in a specific area. The difference between the terms “future” and “trend” is not explained exclusively by an event horizon or time frame. A future is a picture or a scenario, while a trend is a one-time development that can lead to changes. Foresight builds on trends.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\nWhat is Foresight or Corporate Foresight?<\/h2>\n
Foresight is the application of futures research methods by organizations with the aim of preparing for possible futures in the best possible way. Since it is applied as a management tool in a corporate context, it is also referred to as “strategic” or “corporate foresight”. Corporate foresight is an essential part of strategy development and helps companies to be successful in the long term.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\nWhat is the difference between futures research and foresight?<\/h3>\n\nFutures research is the academic study of possible futures. Its goal is to create an awareness of possible future developments. Corporate foresight goes beyond the theoretical examination of possible futures and implies active action in the present in companies or institutions. Foresight practitioners are characterized by the systematic application of futures studies methods.
Both “corporate foresight” and futures research should be distinguished from “futurists,” who use a variety of approaches to make statements about the future that may also be based on speculation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\nWhat does our Foresight research process look like?<\/h2>\n
The research process in our projects is based on six steps in order to meet the requirements of scientific work.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\nMore about the research process<\/h3>\n\nThe rule for us is: we also include uncomfortable findings in our considerations. Science does not tolerate any retouching. This creates the greatest possible scope for you as a business leader.<\/p>\n
To ensure that you do not lose sight of important changes in the tunnel of daily business, we offer you customised future research. We use the following scientific methods for this purpose.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
![\"Zukunftsforschung](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Overview_Research-process-english-01.png\")
<\/p>\n
Our Methods Repertoire<\/h2>\n
\n\n- \n
![\"Trendcycle](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/trendcycle-new.svg\")
<\/p>\n
Trendcycle<\/h3>\n\nAnalysis of social, technological, economic, environmental and political influences and how they affect the business model or an industry.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\nAbout the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
![\"Delphi](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/icon-delphi-new.svg\")
<\/p>\n
Delphi Method<\/h3>\n\nQualitative foresight method in which relevant experts give their assessments of future developments in a multi-stage survey process.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
![\"icon](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/icon-scenario-pen.svg\")
<\/p>\n
Scenarios<\/h3>\n\nNarrative descriptions of different futures that help the reader to imagine the future and derive necessary steps based on it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
![\"icon](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/backcasting-new.svg\")
<\/p>\n
Backcasting<\/h3>\n\nMethod to support strategy development. Aims at enabling the reader to imagine the future and derive the necessary steps to be taken today.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Trendcycle-Method-English-03.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/span>Trendcycle<\/h2>\n\nWhat is the Trendcycle?<\/h3>\n
The Trendcycle examines\u00a0<\/span>social,\u00a0technological, economic, environmental and political influences<\/em>\u00a0and how they affect the business model<\/em> or an industry. It combines the STEEP analysis<\/em> with the Business Model Canvas<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/h3>\nWhere can the Trendcycle be used?<\/h3>\n
The Trendcycle is particularly suitable for…<\/span><\/p>\n\n- visualizing the impact<\/em> of different trends on business models<\/li>\n
- \ngenerating a comprehensive perspective<\/em> on existing business models<\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
- formulating hypotheses<\/em> for new research tasks and projects<\/span><\/li>\n
- identifying weaknesses<\/em> and strengths<\/em> of existing business models<\/li>\n
- developing strategic derivations<\/em> for companies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Delphi-english-overview_Zeichenflache-1-Kopie-3.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/span>Delphi<\/h2>\n\nWhat is the Delphi method?<\/h3>\n
Delphi is a qualitative foresight method in which relevant experts give their assessments of future developments in a multi-stage interview process<\/em>.<\/p>\nThe Delphi method is a qualitative survey procedure established by the renowned RAND think tank, which has been widely used since the 1960s. Like Themis Foresight, the method takes its name from Greek mythology – the Oracle of Delphi. The Delphi method is often referred to as a form of controlled debate. It is based on a panel of 15-35 experts with whom in-depth interviews are conducted on a specific topic, e.g. the development of artificial intelligence in the oil and gas industry. We start from the principle that the future is not something that happens by chance. It is created by influential people in business, science, politics, and society.<\/span><\/p>\nIn the second round, the core statements of the interviews are returned to the experts as hypotheses by means of a questionnaire. Anonymity is maintained so that even unpopular answers can be given unaltered.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h3>\nWhat is Delphi suitable for?<\/h3>\n
The method is particularly suitable for:<\/p>\n
\n- developing forecasts<\/em> about future developments<\/li>\n
- elaborating futures<\/em> and derive associated means<\/em> to achieve them<\/span><\/li>\n
- \nDrawing specific strategic conclusions<\/em> for companies and transfer them into detailed steps<\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n- \n
What are our quality standards for Delphi?<\/h3>\n\nWe select our experts with a high degree of heterogeneity. This allows us to obtain a 360-degree perspective on the chosen topic.\u00a0 We do not block controversial points of view, but actively include them in our considerations. By talking to international creators, we gain a global perspective. Before each interview, we develop an individualized guideline.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n- \n
What is the criticism of the Delphi method?<\/h3>\n\nBesides the obvious advantages of Delphi, there are also justified criticisms. “Know thyself” was the principle of the Delphi oracle. This means that every statement made by designers is usually subject to a bias, which is derived from a person’s knowledge and experience. It is therefore particularly important to recruit experts from different areas that influence a topic for the expert panel. In the example of AI in an industrial context, this would mean talking to engineers, AI scientists, but also AI ethicists and data protectionists. Popular theories like Ray Kurzweil’s singularity would most likely not stand up to a Delphi study with our quality criteria of heterogeneous perspectives.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Although it could not be further from the truth, futures research is repeatedly confronted with the prejudice of fortune-telling. At Themis Foresight, we understand foresight in the sense of Rolf Kreibich as “the scientific concern with possible, desirable and probable future developments and design options as well as their preconditions in the past and present.”<\/p>\n
The world we live in is complex and volatile, the world of tomorrow is even more diverse than the world of today. Simple answers are not enough. Those who want to understand the future do not need echo chambers, but new options for action and fresh thoughts that make complexity tangible. At Themis Foresight, we therefore attach great importance to scientific rigour and interdisciplinarity, which is also reflected in our team. We consciously distinguish ourselves from pure trend research, which focuses on short- and medium-term developments in a specific area. The difference between the terms “future” and “trend” is not explained exclusively by an event horizon or time frame. A future is a picture or a scenario, while a trend is a one-time development that can lead to changes. Foresight builds on trends.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
What is Foresight or Corporate Foresight?<\/h2>\n
Foresight is the application of futures research methods by organizations with the aim of preparing for possible futures in the best possible way. Since it is applied as a management tool in a corporate context, it is also referred to as “strategic” or “corporate foresight”. Corporate foresight is an essential part of strategy development and helps companies to be successful in the long term.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
What is the difference between futures research and foresight?<\/h3>\n\nFutures research is the academic study of possible futures. Its goal is to create an awareness of possible future developments. Corporate foresight goes beyond the theoretical examination of possible futures and implies active action in the present in companies or institutions. Foresight practitioners are characterized by the systematic application of futures studies methods.
Both “corporate foresight” and futures research should be distinguished from “futurists,” who use a variety of approaches to make statements about the future that may also be based on speculation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\nWhat does our Foresight research process look like?<\/h2>\n
The research process in our projects is based on six steps in order to meet the requirements of scientific work.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\nMore about the research process<\/h3>\n\nThe rule for us is: we also include uncomfortable findings in our considerations. Science does not tolerate any retouching. This creates the greatest possible scope for you as a business leader.<\/p>\n
To ensure that you do not lose sight of important changes in the tunnel of daily business, we offer you customised future research. We use the following scientific methods for this purpose.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/p>\n
Our Methods Repertoire<\/h2>\n
\n\n- \n
<\/p>\n
Trendcycle<\/h3>\n\nAnalysis of social, technological, economic, environmental and political influences and how they affect the business model or an industry.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\nAbout the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
<\/p>\n
Delphi Method<\/h3>\n\nQualitative foresight method in which relevant experts give their assessments of future developments in a multi-stage survey process.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
<\/p>\n
Scenarios<\/h3>\n\nNarrative descriptions of different futures that help the reader to imagine the future and derive necessary steps based on it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n- \n
<\/p>\n
Backcasting<\/h3>\n\nMethod to support strategy development. Aims at enabling the reader to imagine the future and derive the necessary steps to be taken today.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/span>Trendcycle<\/h2>\n\nWhat is the Trendcycle?<\/h3>\n
The Trendcycle examines\u00a0<\/span>social,\u00a0technological, economic, environmental and political influences<\/em>\u00a0and how they affect the business model<\/em> or an industry. It combines the STEEP analysis<\/em> with the Business Model Canvas<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/h3>\nWhere can the Trendcycle be used?<\/h3>\n
The Trendcycle is particularly suitable for…<\/span><\/p>\n\n- visualizing the impact<\/em> of different trends on business models<\/li>\n
- \ngenerating a comprehensive perspective<\/em> on existing business models<\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
- formulating hypotheses<\/em> for new research tasks and projects<\/span><\/li>\n
- identifying weaknesses<\/em> and strengths<\/em> of existing business models<\/li>\n
- developing strategic derivations<\/em> for companies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/span>Delphi<\/h2>\n\nWhat is the Delphi method?<\/h3>\n
Delphi is a qualitative foresight method in which relevant experts give their assessments of future developments in a multi-stage interview process<\/em>.<\/p>\nThe Delphi method is a qualitative survey procedure established by the renowned RAND think tank, which has been widely used since the 1960s. Like Themis Foresight, the method takes its name from Greek mythology – the Oracle of Delphi. The Delphi method is often referred to as a form of controlled debate. It is based on a panel of 15-35 experts with whom in-depth interviews are conducted on a specific topic, e.g. the development of artificial intelligence in the oil and gas industry. We start from the principle that the future is not something that happens by chance. It is created by influential people in business, science, politics, and society.<\/span><\/p>\nIn the second round, the core statements of the interviews are returned to the experts as hypotheses by means of a questionnaire. Anonymity is maintained so that even unpopular answers can be given unaltered.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h3>\nWhat is Delphi suitable for?<\/h3>\n
The method is particularly suitable for:<\/p>\n
\n- developing forecasts<\/em> about future developments<\/li>\n
- elaborating futures<\/em> and derive associated means<\/em> to achieve them<\/span><\/li>\n
- \nDrawing specific strategic conclusions<\/em> for companies and transfer them into detailed steps<\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n- \n
What are our quality standards for Delphi?<\/h3>\n\nWe select our experts with a high degree of heterogeneity. This allows us to obtain a 360-degree perspective on the chosen topic.\u00a0 We do not block controversial points of view, but actively include them in our considerations. By talking to international creators, we gain a global perspective. Before each interview, we develop an individualized guideline.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n- \n
What is the criticism of the Delphi method?<\/h3>\n\nBesides the obvious advantages of Delphi, there are also justified criticisms. “Know thyself” was the principle of the Delphi oracle. This means that every statement made by designers is usually subject to a bias, which is derived from a person’s knowledge and experience. It is therefore particularly important to recruit experts from different areas that influence a topic for the expert panel. In the example of AI in an industrial context, this would mean talking to engineers, AI scientists, but also AI ethicists and data protectionists. Popular theories like Ray Kurzweil’s singularity would most likely not stand up to a Delphi study with our quality criteria of heterogeneous perspectives.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Futures research is the academic study of possible futures. Its goal is to create an awareness of possible future developments. Corporate foresight goes beyond the theoretical examination of possible futures and implies active action in the present in companies or institutions. Foresight practitioners are characterized by the systematic application of futures studies methods.
Both “corporate foresight” and futures research should be distinguished from “futurists,” who use a variety of approaches to make statements about the future that may also be based on speculation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
What does our Foresight research process look like?<\/h2>\n
The research process in our projects is based on six steps in order to meet the requirements of scientific work.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n The rule for us is: we also include uncomfortable findings in our considerations. Science does not tolerate any retouching. This creates the greatest possible scope for you as a business leader.<\/p>\n To ensure that you do not lose sight of important changes in the tunnel of daily business, we offer you customised future research. We use the following scientific methods for this purpose.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Analysis of social, technological, economic, environmental and political influences and how they affect the business model or an industry.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Qualitative foresight method in which relevant experts give their assessments of future developments in a multi-stage survey process.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Narrative descriptions of different futures that help the reader to imagine the future and derive necessary steps based on it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n Method to support strategy development. Aims at enabling the reader to imagine the future and derive the necessary steps to be taken today.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n About the method<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n The Trendcycle examines\u00a0<\/span>social,\u00a0technological, economic, environmental and political influences<\/em>\u00a0and how they affect the business model<\/em> or an industry. It combines the STEEP analysis<\/em> with the Business Model Canvas<\/em>.<\/p>\n The Trendcycle is particularly suitable for…<\/span><\/p>\n Delphi is a qualitative foresight method in which relevant experts give their assessments of future developments in a multi-stage interview process<\/em>.<\/p>\n The Delphi method is a qualitative survey procedure established by the renowned RAND think tank, which has been widely used since the 1960s. Like Themis Foresight, the method takes its name from Greek mythology – the Oracle of Delphi. The Delphi method is often referred to as a form of controlled debate. It is based on a panel of 15-35 experts with whom in-depth interviews are conducted on a specific topic, e.g. the development of artificial intelligence in the oil and gas industry. We start from the principle that the future is not something that happens by chance. It is created by influential people in business, science, politics, and society.<\/span><\/p>\n In the second round, the core statements of the interviews are returned to the experts as hypotheses by means of a questionnaire. Anonymity is maintained so that even unpopular answers can be given unaltered.<\/span><\/p>\n The method is particularly suitable for:<\/p>\n We select our experts with a high degree of heterogeneity. This allows us to obtain a 360-degree perspective on the chosen topic.\u00a0 We do not block controversial points of view, but actively include them in our considerations. By talking to international creators, we gain a global perspective. Before each interview, we develop an individualized guideline.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n Besides the obvious advantages of Delphi, there are also justified criticisms. “Know thyself” was the principle of the Delphi oracle. This means that every statement made by designers is usually subject to a bias, which is derived from a person’s knowledge and experience. It is therefore particularly important to recruit experts from different areas that influence a topic for the expert panel. In the example of AI in an industrial context, this would mean talking to engineers, AI scientists, but also AI ethicists and data protectionists. Popular theories like Ray Kurzweil’s singularity would most likely not stand up to a Delphi study with our quality criteria of heterogeneous perspectives.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nMore about the research process<\/h3>\n
<\/p>\nOur Methods Repertoire<\/h2>\n
\n\n
<\/p>\nTrendcycle<\/h3>\n
<\/p>\nDelphi Method<\/h3>\n
<\/p>\nScenarios<\/h3>\n
<\/p>\nBackcasting<\/h3>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/span>Trendcycle<\/h2>\n
What is the Trendcycle?<\/h3>\n
<\/h3>\n
Where can the Trendcycle be used?<\/h3>\n
\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/span>Delphi<\/h2>\n
What is the Delphi method?<\/h3>\n
<\/h3>\n
What is Delphi suitable for?<\/h3>\n
\n
\n\n
What are our quality standards for Delphi?<\/h3>\n
What is the criticism of the Delphi method?<\/h3>\n
![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/methoden-szenarien-neu.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Backcasting-english-method_Zeichenflache-1.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n